Inmet: weather forecast between January 22nd and February 7th, 2024

In the first week, large volumes of rain may occur, exceeding 90 millimeters, in areas of the North, Central-West, Southeast and Northeast regions

22.01.2024 | 15:29 (UTC -3)
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The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) concluded today (22/1) the weather forecast for the next two weeks. In the first, between the 22nd and 29th of January, the week could present large volumes of rain, which could exceed 90 millimeters (mm) - red and pink tones on the map, in areas of the North, Central-West, Southeast and in the Northeast of the country, associated with a humidity channel (figure 1).

Check out the detailed weather forecast for each region of the country for the next two weeks below.

Forecast for the 1st week (22/01/2024 to 29/01/2024):

North region: Rain showers are forecast during the week, with amounts greater than 50 mm in practically the entire region, but mainly in Pará, Amapá, Rondônia and Tocantins, which may be accompanied by lightning, gusts of wind and thunderstorms. In Acre, Amazonas and Rondônia, isolated rain showers with smaller accumulations cannot be ruled out. In Roraima, little rain is forecast (blue and white tones on the map).

Northeast Region: The forecast is for significant rain throughout the week, which is expected to hit, mainly areas in the states of Bahia and Piauí with volumes exceeding 100 mm and which may be accompanied by lightning, gusts of wind and thunderstorms. Furthermore, areas of Maranhão, Ceará and the hinterland of the states of Paraíba, Pernambuco, Alagoas and Sergipe may exceed 70 mm. 

Isolated rains in the northeast of the region cannot be ruled out. These rains are associated with the influence of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the humidity channel.

Midwest Regions e Southeast: intense rains are expected, with volumes greater than 80 mm, which may be accompanied by lightning, gusts of wind and thunderstorms, mainly in the north of the states of Mato Grosso, Goiás and Minas Gerais, in addition to the east of São Paulo. In other areas, there is a forecast of rainfall with accumulated rainfall exceeding 50 mm.

South region: Rain showers are forecast, due to the convergence of humidity that will favor instability throughout the week in areas of eastern Paraná and Santa Catarina, which could exceed 50 mm. In the interior of the region, less rainfall is expected.

Figure 1: rain forecast for the 1st week (22 and 29/01/2024); source: Inmet
Figure 1: rain forecast for the 1st week (22 and 29/01/2024); source: Inmet

In the second week, between January 30th and February 7th, 2024, the week may present rainfall volumes greater than 60 mm in a large part of the country, but mainly in areas of the North and East of Brazil. In areas of the North and Northeast Regions, in addition to the extreme south, little rain is expected.

Forecast for the 2st week (30/01/2024 to 07/02/2024):

North region: volumes greater than 50 mm are predicted in the center-south of Pará and Amazonas, Acre, Amapá, Rondônia and Tocantins. In Roraima, north of Amazonas and Pará, little rain is forecast.

Northeast Region: In the north, extreme south and east of the region, the forecast is for rain in the form of showers that could exceed 50 mm, mainly in Maranhão, Piauí and southern Bahia. In the interior of the region, lower rainfall accumulations are expected.

Midwest Regions e Southeast: locally heavy rain showers are forecast in areas of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, Minas Gerais, central-south Goiás and southern Mato Grosso do Sul, which are expected to exceed 80 mm. In other areas, lower rainfall accumulations are expected.

South: the forecast is for accumulated rainfall greater than 60 mm in the central-north of the Region. With a forecast of smaller accumulations in the center-south of Rio Grande do Sul.

Figure 2: rain forecast for the 2nd week (30/01/2024 and 07/02/2024); source: GFS
Figure 2: rain forecast for the 2nd week (30/01/2024 and 07/02/2024); source: GFS
LS Tractor February