Inmet: weather forecast between February 26th and March 13th, 2024

The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) today concluded the weather forecast for the next two weeks. In the first, between February 26th and March 4th, large amounts of rain (possibly greater than 80 millimeters - red and pink tones on the map in figure 1) are expected to affect areas of the North and Northeast regions and also the state of Minas Gerais due to the combination of heat and high humidity.

In the northern part of the country, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ZCIT) is expected to strengthen instability, causing intense rain, mainly in the states of Amapá, Pará, Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Paraíba and Pernambuco. 

See below the detailed weather forecast for each region of the country for the next two weeks.

Forecast for the 1st week (26/02/2024 to 04/03/2024):

For Northern Region, rain showers are expected throughout the week, with amounts greater than 50 mm in practically the entire region, but mainly in areas of Amazonas, Pará, Rondônia and south of Roraima, which may be accompanied by lightning, gusts of wind and thunderstorms. In other areas, isolated rain showers with minor accumulations cannot be ruled out.

In the north-central North East Region, locally heavy rain showers are forecast, with greater intensity in areas of Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco and Paraíba, where volumes greater than 100,0 mm are not ruled out. In other areas, isolated rain showers with minor accumulations cannot be ruled out.

in the regions Midwest e Southeast, there is a forecast of rain in the form of showers, with accumulations greater than 40 mm, however, with greater intensity in areas of Minas Gerais, Goiás and Mato Grosso due to the heat and high humidity. In other areas, there is a forecast of rain with smaller accumulations.

Na South, the week begins with rain showers in areas of Rio Grande do Sul, which may exceed 50,0 mm due to the transport of moisture from the ocean to the continent. In other areas, accumulations below 40 mm are expected.

In the second week, between March 5th and 13th, 2024, the forecast indicates rainfall volumes greater than 60 mm in much of the country. See figure 2.

Forecast for the 2st week (05/03/2024 to 13/03/2024):

In much of the Northern Region, accumulations greater than 50,0 mm are predicted, but mainly in areas of Amazonas, Acre, Rondônia, Pará and Tocantins. In other areas, rainfall volumes of less than 30 mm are forecast.

Na North East Region, the forecast is for rain in the form of showers, which could exceed 50,0 mm in practically the entire region. Rain may be locally heavy in areas of Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará and on the east coast and hinterland of Paraíba and Pernambuco. In other areas, lower rainfall accumulations are expected.

in the regions Midwest e Southeast, there is a forecast of rain showers in all states, mainly in Rio de Janeiro, Espírito Santo, Minhas Gerais, Distrito Federal and Goiás. In Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo, the forecast is for smaller amounts of rain.

Na South, the forecast is for rain greater than 50 mm in all states. However, little rain is forecast for the extreme south of Rio Grande do Sul.