Inmet: weather forecast between April 8th and 24th, 2024

The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) today concluded the weather forecast for the next two weeks. In the first, between the 8th and 15th of April, the week could present large amounts of rain, which could exceed 80,0 millimeters (mm) - shades in red in figure 1 -, especially in the north of the country, due to the combination of heat and high humidity, in addition to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which continue to influence instability in the region and cause intense rains. 

In the South Region, the advance of the cold front into the ocean, at the beginning of this week, will still cause locally heavy rains. 

Forecast for the 1st week (08/04/2024 to 15/04/2024):

North region: Rain showers are forecast throughout the week, with amounts greater than 80,0 mm in areas of Amazonas, Pará, and Tocantins, which may be accompanied by lightning, gusts of wind and thunderstorms. In other areas, isolated rain showers with smaller accumulations cannot be ruled out. There will be no rain in Roraima and northwest Pará.

Northeast Region: The action of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ZCIT) will cause areas of strong instability in the north of the states of Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará, Rio Grande do Norte, as well as in the interior of Paraíba, where the forecast indicates rainfall exceeding 80 mm. In the eastern part, accumulations greater than 60 mm are predicted. In the interior of Bahia, Pernambuco, Alagoas and Sergipe, there is no rain forecast.

Midwest region: Rains are expected to be more localized in the western part of the region during the week, with volumes exceeding 40 mm. In the center-south of Mato Grosso do Sul, total rainfall may exceed 70,0 mm. On the other hand, in other areas, lower volumes are expected, mainly in the east of Goiás and the Federal District

Southeast region: the forecast is hot and dry weather in much of the region, mainly in the north of Minas Gerais. In the southeast and east of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, rain showers with volumes that could exceed 60 mm are forecast, especially at the end of this week.

South region: The cold front advancing over the ocean will still cause intense rain over Santa Catarina and Paraná throughout the week. In Rio Grande do Sul, the highest volumes of rain are expected to occur towards the weekend and may be accompanied by lightning, gusts of wind, thunderstorms and possible hail.

In the second week, between April 16th and 24th, 2024, the week may present rainfall volumes greater than 70,0 mm in the central and northern part of the country (figure 2).

Forecast for the 2st week (16/04/2024 to 24/04/2024):

North region: Accumulations greater than 70,0 mm are predicted in much of the region, except in the north of Roraima, east of Acre and Tocantins, with volumes of less than 50 mm.

Northeast Region: the forecast is for rain in the form of showers that could exceed 70,0 mm in Maranhão, Piauí, northern Ceará and Rio Grande do Norte, in addition to the southern part of Bahia. In other areas, lower rainfall accumulations are expected.

Midwest Regions e Southeast: Locally heavy rain showers are forecast, which could exceed 70,0 mm in the north of the two regions. In other areas, the forecast is for volumes of less than 50 mm.

South region: the forecast is for rainfall greater than 50,0 mm in Rio Grande do Sul and west of Santa Catarina. In the rest of the region, the forecast is for lower volumes, especially in the northwest of Paraná, where accumulations may be below 20 mm.