Inmet: weather forecast between April 15th and May 1st, 2024

Between the 15th and 22nd of April, the week could see large amounts of rain, which could exceed 80mm

15.04.2024 | 16:03 (UTC -3)
inmet

The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) today concluded the weather forecast for the next two weeks. In the first, between the days between April 15th and 22nd, the week could present large amounts of rain, which could exceed 80,0 millimeters (mm) - shades of red - especially in the north of the country, due to the combination of heat and high humidity, in addition to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which continue to influence instability in the region, causing intense rains. 

In the South Region, the advance of the cold front at the beginning of this week will cause locally heavy rain. 

Forecast for the 1st week (15/04/2024 to 01/05/2024):

North region: Rain showers are forecast throughout the week, with amounts greater than 80,0 mm in areas of Amazonas, Pará and Amapá, which may be accompanied by lightning, gusts of wind and thunderstorms. In other areas, isolated rain showers with smaller accumulations cannot be ruled out, mainly in the southeast of Tocantins, where a reduction in rainfall is expected throughout the week.

Northeast Region: ZCIT's actions will cause areas of strong instability in the north of the states of Maranhão, Piauí, Ceará and west of Rio Grande do Norte, where the forecast indicates rain exceeding 80 mm. Disturbances in the trade winds can cause significant amounts of rain in the eastern part, from the coast of Pernambuco to Bahia. Dry weather in areas of southeastern Piauí and midwestern Bahia.

Midwest region: During the week, rain is expected to be more localized in the central and western parts of the states of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul, with volumes exceeding 40 mm. On the other hand, in other areas, lower volumes are expected, mainly in the center-north of Goiás and the Federal District.

Southeast region: hot and dry weather will prevail over the north of Minas Gerais. In other areas, volumes of less than 20 mm are predicted, however, from Wednesday onwards, rains are expected to occur in the east of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and the south of Minas Gerais, with volumes that could exceed 50 mm.

South region: In much of the region, the advance of a cold front at the beginning of the week will cause rain with a volume above 80 mm and which may be accompanied by lightning, gusts of wind, thunderstorms and possible hail. After the front passes, the forecast is for firm weather for the end of this week.

Figure 1: rain forecast for the 1st week (15 and 22/04/2024); source: Inmet
Figure 1: rain forecast for the 1st week (15 and 22/04/2024); source: Inmet

In the second week, between April 23rd and May 1st, 2024, the week may present rainfall volumes greater than 70,0 mm in the north and south of the country.

Forecast for the 2st week (23/04/2024 to 01/05/2024):

North region: Accumulations greater than 70,0 mm are predicted in much of the region, except in Rondônia, the south of the states of Pará and Amazonas, as well as in Tocantins, with volumes of less than 50 mm.

Northeast Region: the forecast is for rain in the form of showers that could exceed 50,0 mm on the north and east coast of the region, from Maranhão to Bahia. In other areas, lower rainfall accumulations are expected.

Midwest Regions e Southeast: the rain should be more localized over the center-north of Mato Grosso, in addition to specific areas in the east of São Paulo, south of Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro. Lower volumes are expected in the rest of the region, mainly in the Federal District, center-south of Goiás, west of Minas Gerais and northwest of São Paulo, where there may be no rainfall recorded throughout the week.

South region: the forecast is for rain greater than 50,0 mm in Rio Grande do Sul, south of Santa Catarina and Paraná. In the rest of the region, the forecast is for lower volumes, especially in the north of Paraná, where accumulations could be below 20 mm.

Figure 2: rain forecast for the 2nd week (23/04/2024 and 01/05/2024); source: NCEP/NOAA
Figure 2: rain forecast for the 2nd week (23/04/2024 and 01/05/2024); source: NCEP/NOAA

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