Inmet: weather forecast between November 11 and 18, 2024

The week will be marked by large volumes of rain between the central region of the country and Amazonas. Figure 1 shows the forecast for accumulated rainfall, according to the Cosmo numerical model of the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet), indicating that volumes may exceed 100 mm in some locations in Amazonas, Mato Grosso, Goiás, western São Paulo and eastern Minas Gerais (represented in shades of red and pink).

Forecast for November 11-18, 2024

Na Northern Region, areas of instability associated with heat and high humidity will cause heavy rain throughout the week, with accumulations above 50 mm in the central-western Amazonas, Rondônia, central-southern Tocantins and Pará, and may exceed 100 mm in some places. In the other areas of the region, rains will be isolated, with the exception of the north of Pará and part of Amapá, where rainfall accumulations should be below 20 mm.

Na North East Region, the forecast is for hot and dry weather in much of the east. However, there is a tendency for increased cloudiness, especially in the east and south of Bahia, Piauí and south-central Maranhão from the 11th, extending until the 15th, with accumulations that may exceed 50 mm. From the 16th, the tendency is for dry weather in much of the region, with the exception of the east of Bahia, where there will be a possibility of light rain.

For the Regions Midwest e Southeast, the combination of hot and humid air mass will cause instability and locally significant rainfall in Mato Grosso, Goiás, southern Minas Gerais, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro, with accumulations above 100 mm in some locations (red tones). The cold front that will be in the south of the country at the beginning of the week will advance towards the ocean and align a humidity channel over the two regions from November 14th, causing more significant rainfall in the central and southeastern areas of the country.

Na South, the week will begin with a cold front that will advance rapidly through the region on the 11th and 12th, favoring rain accompanied by gusts of wind. From November 13th, the weather will be stable in Rio Grande do Sul and, later, in Santa Catarina and Paraná, until November 15th. From the 16th, areas of instability will form over the region, causing heavy rain that should continue in the following days.