Inmet releases climate analysis for June and forecasts for the next three months

The arrival of the La Niña phenomenon in the next quarter should bring below-average rainfall, high temperatures and low humidity in some regions of the country

08.07.2024 | 17:49 (UTC -3)
Cultivar Magazine, based on information from Inmet

The month of June 2024 brought a series of significant climate variations in several regions of Brazil, according to the Agroclimatological Bulletin of the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet). These changes have had a direct impact on soil conditions and agricultural activities, highlighting the importance of monitoring and adapting agricultural practices to climatic conditions.

Accumulated rain and soil moisture

In the extreme north and south of Brazil, as well as on the east coast of the Northeast, rainfall accumulations above 150 mm were recorded. These precipitations maintained high soil humidity, favoring the development of crops. In contrast, a large part of the Center-West, Southeast and interior of the Northeast regions had rainfall volumes of less than 50 mm, resulting in low water levels in the soil, mainly in the southeast of Piauí, the middle west of Bahia and the north of Minas Gerais.

The northern part of the North Region recorded rainfall volumes exceeding 300 mm, with emphasis on Roraima and Amapá, where rainfall exceeded 250 mm. This situation is opposite to that observed in the south of Pará, Amazonas and Acre, where volumes were less than 50 mm, and in the states of Tocantins and Rondônia, which did not record rain.

Regional impacts

North region: Boa Vista (RR) had the highest rainfall of the month, with 471,6 mm, followed by Caracaraí (RR) and Macapá (AP). The rains maintained favorable soil moisture levels, except in Tocantins, where humidity is low.

Northeast Region: the rains were more intense in the northwest of Maranhão and on the coast from Rio Grande do Norte to Bahia. Natal (RN) and Maceió (AL) stood out with 605,7 mm and 420,4 mm, respectively. Inland, low humidity harmed second-crop corn crops.

Midwest region: dry weather prevailed, with very low volumes of rain. The dry season reduced soil moisture, which could harm the second harvest corn, but favor the cotton harvest.

Southeast region: Accumulated rainfall below 50 mm prevailed, with the exception of specific areas in the east. The reduction in soil moisture is unfavorable for corn and wheat crops.

South region: Rainfall volumes exceeding 150 mm were recorded in the west and south of Santa Catarina and in much of Rio Grande do Sul. The high rainfall increased soil moisture, but also caused difficulties in sowing and developing crops such as corn and wheat.

Extreme Temperatures

Average maximum (a) and minimum (b) air temperature (°C) in June 2024; source: Inmet
Average maximum (a) and minimum (b) air temperature (°C) in June 2024; source: Inmet

The average maximum temperatures in June were above 30°C in north-central Brazil, with peaks above 34°C in Tocantins, Rondônia, Pará, Piauí and Mato Grosso. The minimum temperatures were above 20°C in the North and Northeast regions, while in the South and Southeast they were below 16°C, with frosts recorded at the end of the month.

Forecast for July, August and September 2024

North region: the forecast indicates rainfall close to or below average, with temperatures above average. Reducing humidity can increase the incidence of fires.

Northeast Region: rainfall close to average in the interior and slightly below on the coast, with temperatures above average. Low soil moisture can favor the maturation of crops such as cotton and second-crop corn.

Midwest region: forecast of below average rainfall and above average temperatures. Low humidity can harm the second harvest corn, but favor the cotton harvest.

Southeast region: Below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures are expected, with possible isolated frosts in higher altitude areas.

South region: above-average rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and southeast Paraná. Above-average temperatures may occur, with possible frosts in higher altitude locations.

Ocean conditions and trends

The North Tropical Atlantic showed significant warming, which could reduce rainfall in the north of the Northeast Region. In the Equatorial Pacific, the transition from El Niño to Neutrality conditions was observed, with La Niña forecast for the next quarter, which could further impact climate conditions in Brazil.

Analysis of weather conditions and forecasts for the coming months are essential for agricultural planning, allowing producers to adapt their cultivation and harvesting strategies to minimize adverse impacts and take advantage of favorable conditions.

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