Inmet publishes monitoring, forecasts and possible impacts of El Niño

The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet), in partnership with the National Institute for Space Research (Inpe), the National Water and Basic Sanitation Agency (ANA) and the National Center for Risk and Disaster Management (Cenad) released monitoring, forecasts and the possible impacts of El Niño in Brazil in 2023.

Since June 2023, observed sea surface temperature conditions show a pattern typical of the El Niño phenomenon. This pattern appears in the form of a band of warm waters in a large part of the Equatorial Pacific Ocean that, close to the coast of South America, are above 3°C. Between August and early September, this region showed signs of anomalous convective activity in association with the development of deep clouds.

This year, an effect of El Niño was the rainfall recorded in Rio Grande do Sul, between September 1st and 19th, whose volumes were around 450 millimeters (mm). In the other states of the country, a precipitation deficit was recorded, with volumes exceeding 50 mm, below the historical average, in the North Region.

For the next quarter (October, November and December) the forecast indicates a greater probability of rain below the normal range between the east, center and north of Brazil. Between the South Region, part of Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo, the forecast indicates a greater chance of rain above the normal range. This forecast reflects the typical characteristics of El Niño over Brazil. The temperature forecast indicates a greater probability of values ​​above the normal range in most of the country.

Regarding the prediction of water storage in the soil, the southern part of Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo, in addition to the South Region, indicate the maintenance of soil moisture, with values ​​greater than 70%. It is important to highlight that with the action of El Niño, there is a probability of the occurrence of large volumes that can contribute to the increase in water levels in the soil, with values ​​exceeding 90%, even causing a water surplus.

The natural flows in the Madeira River present values ​​35% below the average for the month, and in the Xingu River, values ​​close to the average for the month. The storage situation in the SIN reservoirs reached 75,7% and, in the Northeast Region, 48,1%, a better reality than that observed in the last four years for the same period, however, with a critical situation in at least 12 systems local water sources regulated by the ANA.

More information can be obtained at the link below: