Inmet releases climate forecast for planting the main summer crops

With the arrival of Spring in the Southern Hemisphere next Thursday (22) and the increasing increase in rainfall in much of the country at this time of year, the planting of the main summer crops has begun. According to the Climate Prognosis of the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet), the forecast for the months of October to December indicates a predominance of rainfall above the climatological average in a large part of the North, Northeast, Central-West and Southeast regions.

The forecast also indicates a greater probability of rainfall below the climatological average throughout the Southern Region, due to the impacts that the La Niña phenomenon can cause.

According to Inmet, the first episodes of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone (ZCAS) could occur during spring, with rains in the Southeast, Center-West, the state of Acre and Rondônia.

In the South Region, episodes of Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCC) may occur, which are associated with heavy rain, gusts of wind, atmospheric discharges (lightning) and eventual hail.

Spring in the Southern Hemisphere begins on September 22, 2022 at 22:04 pm and ends on December 21st at 18:48 pm. Climatologically, it is a transition period between the dry and rainy seasons in the central sector of Brazil.

Impacts on the 2022/2023 harvest

In Central Brazil, the climate forecast points to the gradual return of rain, especially in October, which will be important for increasing water storage in the soil and establishing the initial phases of crops in the field, such as soybeans, corn and cotton.

In the South Region and in the south of Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo, the forecast of below-average rainfall could impact the start of the grain harvest in these areas. However, the accumulation of rain that has occurred in the South Region since the second half of August has maintained water storage in the soil above 50% in a large part of the region, which may contribute to the lesser impact in the initial phases of crop cultivation. grain harvest, if below-average rainfall occurs.

In Matopiba, a region that encompasses areas of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia, the beginning of the summer harvest can be marked by rainfall within or above the climatological average, especially in the months of November and December. These rains will be responsible for raising water levels in the soil, mainly in areas of western Bahia and the state of Tocantins, favoring the establishment and initial phases of agricultural crops.

Climate Forecast

In the North region, the climate forecast for the months of October to December indicates a predominance of rainfall above the climatological average in a large part of the North region, mainly in Amapá, due to the action of the La Niña phenomenon and the pattern of warmer waters close to the coast. . In the south of Pará and southwest of Amazonas, the forecast is for slightly below average rainfall during the quarter.

In the Northeast, Inmet's forecast for spring indicates that there will be a predominance of rain above the climatology in a large part of the region. As in the North Region, the continuity of rain in the Northeast Region is associated with the impacts of La Niña and the pattern of slightly warmer waters close to the coast.

The trend for spring is for rainfall close to and above the historical average in practically the entire Midwest region, except in the center and south of Mato Grosso do Sul and in the east of Mato Grosso, where total rainfall is forecast slightly below the climatology of the quarter.

Also in the Southeast Region, the forecast for the next three months is above average rainfall in much of the region. In the south of São Paulo, rainfall may occur below average.

In the South Region, the forecast indicates a greater probability of rain below the climatology throughout the region, due to the impacts that the La Niña phenomenon can cause.

More information can be obtained. here.