Inmet presents possible impacts of rain at the beginning of the 2023-24 harvest

With climate models forecasting the persistence of the current El Niño phenomenon until at least the end of summer 2023-24, the question arises as to what impact this event will have on the start of the current summer harvest.

In general, in El Niño years, there is an increase in rainfall in the South Region of the country, while in the North and Northeast regions, there is a reduction in rainfall. However, it is important to highlight that the climate in Brazil is not only influenced by the action of this phenomenon, as there are other factors to be considered, which also affect the weather and climate conditions in the country, which can mitigate or intensify the effects of El Niño, factors these are also considered in climate forecasts. In this sense, constant monitoring and attention to observed conditions and climate forecasts are extremely necessary, especially in producing regions.

The climate forecast points to the gradual return of rain in the southern portion of the Central-West and Southeast regions, mainly in November, an important factor for increasing water storage in the soil and the establishment of the initial phases of crops in the field, such as soybeans , corn and cotton. However, in the northern portion of the Central-West and Southeast regions, irregular rainfall, combined with high temperatures, can reduce water levels in the soil.

In the South Region, the forecast of above-average rainfall may benefit the start of the grain harvest in these areas. However, special attention is needed for Rio Grande do Sul, where excessive rain is expected in the coming months, a scenario that could intensify the water surplus, causing the soil to become waterlogged and, consequently, damaging the winter harvest and the beginning of planting of grain crops.