Inmet launches water forecast maps

The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) has released new maps that provide forecasts of soil water deficit, excess and storage at a national level. Developed by the team at the General Coordination of Applied Meteorology, Development and Research (CGMADP/Inmet), the initiative reinforces agroclimatic monitoring and aims to support agricultural planning in Brazil.

The tool allows for the early identification of areas with low or high water availability and the estimation of soil water storage capacity, strategic information for the management of temporary and permanent crops. The projections will be updated monthly based on rainfall and temperature data generated by the Inmet climate model and will be incorporated into the Monthly Agroclimatological Bulletin.

Based on the Monthly Water Balance, Inmet calculates three main indicators: water deficiency, water surplus and percentage of water storage in the soil. The aim is to provide increasingly accurate data to strengthen the resilience and productivity of agriculture.

The launch marks the first product linked to Inmet's 2025-2031 Strategic Planning, dedicated to weather and climate forecasting applied to the agricultural sector.

Forecast for April, May and June 2025

In April 2025, the forecast indicates greater water deficits in northern Roraima, central areas of the Northeast, northern Minas Gerais, western Mato Grosso do Sul and southwestern Mato Grosso. In these regions, soil water storage may fall below 10%, affecting crops in critical phases such as germination and flowering.

In May, the trend is for water shortages to increase, especially in the Matopiba region (Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia). The predicted deficit could favor the harvest of the first corn crop, but represents a risk for the second corn crop, which is in a phase of high water demand. In more critical areas, irrigation strategies may be necessary to preserve production potential.

In June, with the advance of autumn and the decrease in rainfall in the central region of Brazil, water shortages tend to worsen. On the other hand, the extreme north of the country, the coast of the Northeast and a large part of the South Region should present satisfactory levels of water storage in the soil, favoring the development of crops.