In ten years, the planted area will be expanded by 10,3 million hectares in Brazil

The Agribusiness Projections, Brazil 2018/19 to 2028/29 study predicts that the total area planted with crops in the country will increase from 75,4 million hectares to 85,68 million, an increase of 10,3 million hectares in ten years . The expansion will take place mainly over natural pastures and degraded areas. The group brings together the crops of cotton, rice, beans, corn, soybeans (grain), wheat, coffee, cassava, potatoes, oranges, tobacco, sugar cane, cocoa, cassava, grapes, apples, bananas, mangoes, melon and papaya.

Produced by the Agricultural Policy Secretariat of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply and by the Intelligence and Strategic Relations Secretariat of the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, the study provides perspectives for production, consumption, exports, imports and planted area in Brazil.

According to the survey, the cultivated area of ​​grains (cotton, peanuts, rice, oats, canola, rye, barley, beans, sunflower, castor beans, corn, soybeans, sorghum, wheat and triticale) will jump from 62,9 million hectares to 72,4 million hectares, which corresponds to an annual increase of 1,4%, or 15,3% over a 10-year period.

In the next decade, Brazil will produce 300 million tons of grains, that is, 62,8 million tons more (27%). Growth will mainly come from increased crop productivity. 

Crops Projections point to growth in the following crops: soybeans (+ 9,54 million hectares), second harvest corn (+ 4 million hectares) and sugar cane (+ 1,64 million hectares). There will be a decline in rice (-1 million hectares), orange (-100 thousand hectares) and cassava (-180 thousand hectares) crops.

According to the study, the crops that will lose area, such as cassava, coffee, rice, oranges and beans, will be compensated by productivity gains. The expansion of soybeans and sugarcane will occur "through the incorporation of new areas, areas of natural pastures and also by replacing other crops that will have to give up area. The corn area must expand over areas freed up by soybeans, in the system direct planting".

“Some uncertainties are inherent to the characteristics of agriculture and others, such as tensions in commercial relations and diseases, which can affect crops and livestock, and extreme weather events, such as rain, frost and drought”, explains José Garcia Gasques, general coordinator of Policy and Information Assessment of the ministry and one of the researchers.

Among the country's regions, the Center-West will see the largest increase in planted area in the period, with growth from 26,5 million hectares to 34 million hectares, an increase of 28,5%.

In the South, the increase will be 8%, from 19,5 million hectares to 21 million hectares. In the North, growth will be 19%, from 3 million hectares to 3,6 million hectares.

The region called Matopiba (formed by Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia) "is expected to show a high increase in grain production, just as its area should also show a significant increase. Projections indicate that this region should produce around 28,7 million tons of grains in 2028/29 in a grain planted area of ​​8,8 million hectares at the end of the projection period", points out the study