In June, IBGE forecasts a harvest of 295,9 million tons for 2024

In June, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2024 should total 295,9 million tons, 6,2% lower than that obtained in 2023 (315,4 million tons), a reduction of 19,5 million tons . In relation to May, there was a drop of 0,3%, with a decrease of 940,3 thousand tons. The area to be harvested was 78,3 million hectares, an increase of 0,6% compared to 2023, growth of 462,7 thousand hectares; and an increase of 8.220 hectares (0,0%) in relation to May.

Rice, corn and soybeans, the three main products, together represent 91,6% of the production estimate and account for 87,2% of the area to be harvested. Compared to 2023, there was an increase of 12,5% ​​in the area to be harvested of herbaceous cotton (seed); 7,1% for paddy rice; of 6,9% in beans and 3,3% in soybeans, and declines of 4,9% in the corn area (-8,6% in 1st harvest corn and - 3,7% in 2nd harvest corn) ; 11,0% for wheat and 4,1% for sorghum. 

In relation to production, there were increases of 9,8% for herbaceous cotton (seed); 4,1% for rice; of 9,0% for beans and 23,7% for wheat, as well as decreases of 3,4% for soybeans, 13,3% for corn (reductions of 15,0% in 1st harvest corn and 12,8% for 2nd harvest corn) and 10,4% for sorghum. 

The production estimate for soybeans was 146,8 million tons. As for corn, the estimate was 113,7 million tons (23,6 million tons of corn in the 1st harvest and 90,1 million tons of corn in the 2nd harvest). Rice production was estimated at 10,7 million tons; that of wheat at 9,6 million tons; that of herbaceous cotton (seed) at 8,5 million tons; and sorghum, at 3,9 million tons.

The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed positive annual variation for two Major Regions: the South (4,8%) and the North (9,8%). There was a negative annual variation for the others: the Central-West (-12,8%), the Southeast (-11,4%) and the Northeast (-3,4%). As for the monthly variation, the North showed growth (1,2%), while the Central-West showed stability (0,0%). The others showed a decline: the Southeast (-3,1%), the Northeast (-0,5%) and the South (-0,2%).

Mato Grosso leads as the largest national grain producer, with a share of 29,3%, followed by Paraná (13,3%), Rio Grande do Sul (12,7%), Goiás (10,6%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7,3%) and Minas Gerais (5,6%), which, together, represented 78,8% of the total. Regarding regional participation, there is the following distribution: Central-West (47,5%), South (28,3%), Southeast (9,2%), Northeast (8,8%) and North (6,2 .XNUMX%).

Highlights in the June 2024 estimate compared to the previous month

In relation to May, there were increases in production estimates for 3rd harvest beans (5,7% or 42.201 t), rice (1,8% or 188.812 t), 1st harvest beans (1,3% or 12.485 t) , 2nd harvest beans (0,2% or 2.534 t) and soybeans (0,1% or 140.946 t), as well as declines in production estimates for sorghum (-10,9% or -471.951 t), coffee canephora (-2,1% or -24.006 t), potato 2nd harvest (-1,2% or -16.000 t), corn 2nd harvest (-0,8% or -684.475 t), corn 1st harvest ( -0,6% or -138.411 t) and Arabica coffee (-0,2% or -5.557 t).

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution: Central-West, 140,4 million tons (47,5%); South, 83,7 million tons (28,3%); Southeast, 27,2 million tons (9,2%); Northeast, 26,1 million tons (8,8%) and North, 18,5 million tons (6,2%).

The main positive absolute variations in production estimates, in relation to the previous month, occurred in Tocantins (207.497 t), in Ceará (19.907 t), in Rondônia (7 t), in Acre 918 t), in Pará (6.171 t ), in Amazonas (468 t), in Rio Grande do Norte (185 t) and in Rio de Janeiro (129 t). The negative variations occurred in Minas Gerais (-37 t), in Paraná (-878.871 t), in Bahia (-138.800 t), in Pernambuco (-138.266 t), in Amapá (-25.190 t), in Espírito Santo (- 1.010 t) and in Maranhão (-383 t).

Rice (in paddy):  Estimate for 2024 points to production of 10,7 million tons, an increase of 1,8% compared to the previous month's estimate, and growth of 4,1% in relation to the volume produced in 2023. This increase is due to the area planted, which grew 6,7%, while the average yield fell 2,8%. Rice production in 2024, although limited, must meet the country's domestic consumption.

English potato: production, considering the three harvests of the product, should reach 4,3 million tons, a decline of 0,4% in relation to the May estimate. In relation to 2023, Brazilian potato production is expected to grow 0,3%.

The 1st harvest should contribute 41,2% of the total potatoes to be produced in the year. Estimated production was 1,8 million tons, remaining stable in relation to the May estimate. In relation to 2023, the production estimate was 3,4% lower, following the 5,0% reduction in average yield, with the harvested area growing by 1,7%. The 2nd harvest, which represents 31,7% of total production, was estimated at 1,4 million tons; 1,2% lower than the May estimate. The area to be harvested remained unchanged and the average yield was 1,2% lower. For the 3rd harvest, the production estimate was 1,2 million tons, stable compared to the previous month, and growing 5,6% compared to 2023.

Coffee (beans): Brazilian production, considering the two species, Arabica and canephora, was estimated at 3,7 million tons, or 60,9 million 60 kg bags, a decrease of 0,8% compared to the previous month and growth of 6,9% compared to 2023. The climate in 2023/ 2024 has benefited crops in the Center-South of the country. Furthermore, the current harvest has a positive two-year period for Arabica coffee, which should result in an increase in the production of this type of coffee, despite the previous year's harvest, which was also favored due to the climate, it was considered very good, increasing its basis for comparison.

For Arabica coffee, estimated production was 2,5 million tons, or 42,2 million 60 kg bags, a decline of 0,2% compared to May and growth of 6,9% compared to the previous year . In 2023, although the Arabica coffee harvest had a negative bienniality, production showed growth when compared to 2022, as the climate benefited the crops, promoting an “inversion of this bienniality”. For the current year's harvest, a positive two-year period is expected, therefore, an increase in production compared to the previous year.

For coffee canephora, the production estimate was 1,1 million tons or 18,7 million 60 kg bags, a decrease of 2,1% compared to the previous month. Although the harvested area grew by 0,5%, the average yield declined by 2,6%. In relation to 2023, production should increase 6,9%, as a result of growth of 3,5% in average yield and 3,2% in harvested area.

Beans (in grain): the estimated bean production for 2024, considering the three harvests, should reach 3,2 million tons, growth of 1,8% in relation to the previous month and 9,0% in relation to 2023. This production should meet Brazilian domestic consumption in 2024, with no need to import the product.

Production of the 1st bean harvest was 1,0 million tons, an increase of 1,3% compared to the May estimate; and the expected average yield was 1,4% higher and, for the harvested area, a reduction of 0,1% is expected. The annual comparison for the 1st harvest shows an increase of 3,5% in production, mainly due to the 4,1% growth in average yield, as the harvested area showed a decline of 0,6%.

The 2nd bean harvest was estimated at 1,4 million tons, an increase of 0,2% compared to the last survey. The average yield estimate was reduced by 0,4% and the area to be harvested increased by 0,6%, compared to the last survey. This production estimate for the 2nd harvest was 2023% higher than that of 19,4, following increases of 17,6% in the area to be harvested and 1,5% in average yield.

In relation to the 3rd bean harvest, the production estimate was 778,5 thousand tons, an increase of 5,7% in the production estimate and 5,9% in the estimated area to be harvested. For the average income, a reduction of 0,2% is expected, in relation to the estimate in May.

Corn (grain): the corn production estimate showed a decrease in monthly production of 0,7%, totaling 113,7 million tons, related to the 0,5% drop in average yield (5.405kg/ha), as well as in the harvested area (-0,2%). In relation to 2023, cereal production fell by 13,3%, largely influenced by the significant reduction in productivity (-8,9%, as well as the harvested area (-4,9%).

For corn 1st harvest, production was estimated at 23,6 million tons, a reduction of 0,6% compared to May, with losses in average yield and planted area, 0,5% and 0,1%, respectively . The estimate for corn 2nd harvest foresees a production of 90,1 million tons, and this value represents a monthly reduction of 0,8% or 684,5 thousand tons, with a drop of 0,5% in the average yield, being estimated at 5.526 kg/ha.

Soybeans (in grain): there was a 0,1% increase in the production estimate in relation to May due to the same value improvement in average yield. Production should reach 146,8 million tons, a decrease of 3,4% compared to the previous year's production. There was a monthly increase of 140,9 thousand tons.

Sorghum (grain): the June estimate for sorghum production was 3,9 million tons, a drop of 10,9% in relation to that obtained in May and 10,4% in relation to that obtained in the 2023 harvest. The national average yield was of 3 kg/ha, showing drops of 045% in the annual comparison and 6,6% in the monthly comparison. Sorghum occupied 9,8 million hectares; 1,3% of the areas allocated to cereals, legumes and oilseeds in the 1,6 harvest, representing a 2024% share of this production. In comparison with May, the drop in production was due to the lower crop yield and, in a smaller percentage, the reduction in area.