In July, IBGE forecasts a harvest of 298,0 million tons for 2024

In July, the production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds estimated for 2024 should total 298,0 million tons, 5,5% lower than that obtained in 2023 (315,4 million tons), a reduction of 17,4 million tons . In relation to June, there was an increase of 0,7%, with an increase of 2,2 million tons. The area to be harvested was 78,6 million hectares, an increase of 0,9% compared to 2023, growth of 727,2 thousand hectares; and an increase of 264 hectares (488%) in relation to June.

Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, which, together, represent 91,7% of the estimated production and account for 87,3% of the area to be harvested. In relation to the previous year, there was an increase of 13,1% in the area to be harvested for herbaceous cotton (seed); 4,9% for paddy rice; of 6,0% in beans and 3,2% in soybeans, with declines of 3,2% in the corn area (reductions of 8,7% in 1st harvest corn and 1,5% in 2nd harvest corn ); 11,2% for wheat and 5,3% for sorghum.

In production, there are increases of 10,8% for herbaceous cotton (seed); 1,9% for rice; of 7,1% for beans and 22,7% for wheat, as well as decreases of 4,3% for soybeans and 10,3% for corn (reductions of 15,7% in 1st harvest corn and 8,9% for 2nd harvest corn) and 10,9% for sorghum.

The production estimate for soybeans was 145,4 million tons. As for corn, the estimate was 117,6 million tons (23,4 million tons of corn in the 1st harvest and 94,2 million tons of corn in the 2nd harvest). Rice production was estimated at 10,5 million tons; that of wheat at 9,5 million tons; that of herbaceous cotton (seed) at 8,6 million tons; and sorghum, at 3,8 million tons.

The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds presented the following distribution: Central-West, 144,5 million tons (48,5%); South, 81,3 million tons (27,3%); Southeast, 27,2 million tons (9,1%); Northeast, 26,0 million tons (8,7%) and North, 18,9 million tons (6,4%). The estimated production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed positive annual variation for two Major Regions: the South (1,9%) and the North (12,4%). There was a negative annual variation for the others: the Central-West (-10,3%), the Southeast (-11,3%) and the Northeast (-3,5%). As for the monthly variation, there was growth in the North (2,3%), the Central-West (2,9%) and the Southeast (0,1%). The others showed a decline: the Northeast (-0,2%) and the South (-2,8%).

Mato Grosso leads as the largest national grain producer, with a share of 30,6%, followed by Paraná (13,2%), Rio Grande do Sul (11,9%), Goiás (10,5%), Mato Grosso do Sul (7,1%) and Minas Gerais (5,6%), which, together, represented 78,9% of the total. Regarding regional participation, there is the following distribution: Central-West (48,5%), South (27,3%), Southeast (9,1%), Northeast (8,7%) and North (6,4 .XNUMX%).

Highlights in the June 2024 estimate compared to the previous month

In relation to June, there were increases in production estimates for cashew nuts (8,9% or 11 t), corn 930nd harvest (2% or 4,5 t), grapes (4 % or 091 t), barley (266% or 3,3 t), 47rd harvest beans (134% or 3,1 t), herbaceous seed cotton (14% or 509 t) , oats (3% or 1,3 t), Arabica coffee (9% or 770 t), as well as declines in production estimates for 0,9st harvest beans (-75% or -888 t) , 0,8nd harvest beans (-9% or -747 0,0 t), oranges (-869% or -1 3,7 t), canephora coffee (-37% or -182 2 t), soybeans (-2,0% or -28 t), wheat (-250% or -1,5 t) and 223st harvest corn (-651% or -1,0 t).

The main positive absolute variations in production estimates, in relation to the previous month, occurred in Mato Grosso (4 t), in Roraima (564 t), in Tocantins (478 t), in Sergipe (213 t) , in Rondônia (091 t), in Minas Gerais (187 t), in Bahia (921 t), in Maranhão (72 t) and in Amazonas (026 t). The negative variations occurred in Rio Grande do Sul (-54 t), in Mato Grosso do Sul (-516 t), in Paraná (-30 t), in Paraíba (-603 t), in Ceará ( -9 t), in Pará (-650 t), in Alagoas (-2 t), in the Federal District (-226 t), in Rio Grande do Norte (-2 t), in Rio de Janeiro (-168 t), in Pernambuco (-2 t) and in Amapá (-216 t).

Herbaceous cotton (in seed) – the estimate for production is 8,6 million tons, an increase of 0,9% compared to the previous month. In relation to 2023, the increase in production is 10,8%, with the planted area growing 13,1%. Crop productivity is expected to drop 2,1% compared to the last harvest. With this forecast, the country should harvest another record in cotton production.

Rice (in husk) – the estimate for 2024 points to a production of 10,5 million tons, a decrease of 2,1% in relation to the previous month's estimate, and a growth of 1,9% in relation to the volume produced in 2023. This increase is due to to the harvested area, which grew by 4,9%, while the average yield fell by 2,9%. Rice production in 2024, although limited, must meet the country's domestic consumption.

Coffee (in beans) - Brazilian production, considering the two species, arabica and canephora, was estimated at 3,6 million tons, or 60,7 million 60 kg bags, a decrease of 0,3% in relation to the previous month, having the harvested area declined by 0,3%, maintaining the average yield at 1 kg/ha. In comparison with 864, production grew 2023%, due to increases of 6,6% in average yield and 4,6% in the area to be harvested.

For Arabica coffee, estimated production was 2,5 million tons, or 42,2 million 60 kg bags, unchanged from June and growing 6,9% compared to the previous year. In 2023, although the Arabica coffee harvest had a negative bienniality, production showed growth, when compared to 2022, as the climate benefited the crops, promoting an “inversion of the bienniality”. This way, the basis for comparison is high. For the current year's harvest, a positive biennial is expected, therefore, a natural increase in production in relation to the previous year. Furthermore, the climate has benefited crops in the main producing Units of the Federation to date, which should favor the productivity of coffee plantations.

For canephora coffee, the production estimate was 1,1 million tons or 18,5 million 60 kg bags, a decrease of 1,0% compared to the previous month. Although the average yield grew 0,5%, the harvested area declined 1,5%. In relation to 2023, production should increase 5,8%, as a result of growth of 4,0% in average yield and 1,7% in harvested area.

Cashew nut (almond) – the July estimate for cashew nut production was 145,3 thousand tons, indicating increases of 24,4% in the annual comparison and 8,9% in the monthly comparison. This result can be explained both by the increase in planted area and by the higher average productivity of the product, 323,0 kg/ha. The average productivity gain was 19,2% in the year and 7,0% in the month. The largest Brazilian producers are Ceará, Piauí and Rio Grande do Norte. Ceará's production, at 84,6 thousand tons, represents 58,2% of the national total; that of Piauí, of 28,5 thousand tons, 19,6%; and Rio Grande do Norte, 20,5 thousand tons, 14,1%.

Winter cereal (grain) – the main winter cereals produced in Brazil are wheat, white oats and barley. For wheat (grain), estimated production reaches 9,5 million tons, a decline of 0,8% compared to the previous month; and growth of 22,7% compared to 2023, when Brazil, despite initially expecting a record cereal harvest, had its expectations frustrated due to a series of weather problems, which harmed crops in the South Region.

The average income, in this comparison, shows a growth of 38,1%. Oat production (grain) was estimated at 1,2 million tons, an increase of 0,8% compared to June and 39,3% compared to 2023. The average yield grew 0,4% in compared to the previous month and 40,7% compared to 2023, when adverse weather damaged oat crops in the Southern Region of the country. For barley (in grain), the estimated production was 481,9 thousand tons, an increase 3,1% compared to June and 27,0% compared to the previous year.

Beans (in grain) – the July estimate for bean production, considering the three harvests, should reach 3,2 million tons, a reduction of 1,7% compared to the previous month and an increase of 7,1% over the 2023 harvest This production should meet Brazilian domestic consumption in 2024, with there probably being no need to import the product. Paraná is the largest national producer of beans, with production of 820,8 thousand tons or 26,0% share, followed by Minas Gerais with 530,4 thousand tons or 16,8% share and Goiás with 349,5 thousand tons or 11,1% share.

The production of the 1st bean harvest was 973,2 thousand tons, representing 30,8% of the national share among the three harvests, 3,7% lower than the June estimate. In this comparison, the drop was seen both in the average yield (-2,8%) and in the harvested area (-0,9%). In practically all Geographic Regions there was a drop in bean production: North (-0,4%), Northeast (-6,1%), Southeast (-0,2%) and South (-4,6%), maintaining stable in the Midwest.

The 2nd bean harvest was estimated at 1,4 million tons, corresponding to a 44,3% share between the three harvests. In comparison with June, there was a 2,0% drop in production, partly explained by the loss of average yield (-0,7%) and, partly, by the reduction of areas. The North Region maintained its stable production, while the others had reductions: the Northeast (-4,6%), the Southeast (-0,2%), the South (-0,6%) and the Central-West (- 7,1%) compared to June. More than half of the beans produced in this harvest come from the South Region (53,4%), with Paraná being the largest producer with 659,2 thousand tons or 47,1% of the total harvest. In this case, the reduction in production was 0,4%, mainly resulting from income losses (-1,6%). The production area, however, grew by 1,2%.

In relation to the 3rd bean harvest, the production estimate for July was 778,3 thousand tons, an increase of 1,3% in production and 1,3% in the area to be harvested over the previous month. For the average income, stability is expected. Among the nine Federation Units that produce in this harvest, production was reassessed in Tocantins (0,5%), Minas Gerais (-0,3%), Mato Grosso do Sul (139,8%), Mato Grosso (1,2 %) and Federal District (25,0%). Thus, the North and Central-West Regions were those that influenced the increase in July. It should be noted that Goiás and Minas Gerais are those that contribute most to this bean harvest, corresponding to 27,3% participation (215,5 thousand tons) and 25,5% (201,3 thousand tons), respectively.

Orange - the estimate for orange production was 15,1 million tons, a reduction of 1,5% compared to what was announced in June. The dry climate and high temperatures reduced productivity estimates by 2,0%, causing problems such as flowering failure and inadequate fruit filling. Minas Gerais, the second largest national producer, responsible for 5,6% of production, reduced its monthly estimate by 20,5%, due to the climate problems mentioned above, which affected crop productivity with a decrease of 24,4%.

Unfavorable weather conditions triggered an increase in the number of fruits per tree. The State showed a growth in planted area of ​​5,1% in relation to that published in the previous month, reaching 41,4 thousand hectares. São Paulo, which has not yet updated its estimates, is the largest national producer with a production of 11,4 million tons, which represents 75,7% of national orange production, in an area to be harvested of 361,6 thousand hectares , with an average yield of 31 kg/ha, the second highest in the country, behind only Paraná, which has an average yield of 619 kg/ha.

In Rio Grande do Sul, the monthly production estimate was reduced by 7,3%, with excess rain and cloudy days harming flowering, damaging the growth and ripening of fruits, which influenced the average crop yield, which fell 6,8%. The increase in fruit fly attacks and the higher incidence of diseases also harmed crop productivity.

Corn (grain) - the corn production estimate showed a growth of 3,4%, totaling 117,6 million tons, related to increases of 1,7% in the harvested area and average yield, the latter reaching 5 kg/ha. Positive adjustments in the North (496%) and Central-West (3,2%) regions contributed to this growth, mainly in Mato Grosso, which contributes 5,9% nationally to production, where the increase was 40,2. 10,2% or 4,4 million tons, in the monthly comparison.

For corn 1st harvest, production was estimated at 23,4 million tons, a reduction of 0,8% compared to June with losses of 0,6% in average yield (4 kg/ha). The South and Northeast Regions, with significant representation in national production (955% and 38,7%, respectively) had reductions in their monthly balances of 22,7% and 2,1%, respectively, impacting the final data . However, the North, Central-West and Southeast Regions updated their monthly data with production gains of 1,5%, 5,0% and 1,4%, respectively.

Rio Grande do Sul, even with a negative monthly adjustment (-3,8%), remained the largest producer of 1st harvest corn with a national share of 19,2%, presenting a production of 4,5 million tons. In Minas Gerais, monthly production increased by 0,1%, due to positive adjustments in the planted area and the harvested area of ​​0,2%. As the 2nd largest national producer, accounting for 17,7% of the total, it totaled 4,1 million tons and a productivity of 6kg/ha.

The estimate for 2nd harvest corn foresees a production of 94,2 million tons, this value representing a growth of 4,5% compared to June. Important adjustments in the average yield, of 2,2% (5kg/ha) and in the planted and harvested areas (649%) helped to increase production. The Central-West region, with the greatest representation in national production (2,3%), was the one with the highest monthly growth (72,2% or 6,1 million tons more); with the North, Northeast and South also recording increases of 3,9%, 2,8% and 2,6% respectively, and only the Southeast Region recorded a decline (-0,1%).

Mato Grosso, the largest producer of 2nd harvest corn (with a national share of 49,8%), readjusted its production value in July compared to the previous month, with growth of 10,2%, totaling 46,9 million tons. Other Federation Units showed growth in relation to the month of June 2024, such as in Tocantins (5,3%), in Rondônia (2,5%), in Bahia (2,8%), in Sergipe (7,5% ) and in Ceará (1,1%). The declines occurred in Minas Gerais (-1,0%), in the Federal District (-9,8%), in Mato Grosso do Sul (-4,4%), in Pernambuco (-3,8%), in Rio de Janeiro (-15,5%) and in Alagoas (-8,5%).

Soy (in grain) – there was a 1,0% decline in the production estimate in relation to June, due to the 0,9% reduction in average yield, with the harvested area decreasing by 0,1%. Production should reach 145,4 million tons, showing an annual decrease of 4,3% compared to the quantity produced in the previous year. Oilseed production should represent almost half of the total cereals, legumes and oilseeds produced in the country in 2024.

Grapes – production showed a monthly growth of 3,3%, totaling 1,5 million tons, justified by the increase in average yield, of 2,3% (19 kg/ha) and in the harvested area, of 566% (or 1,0 hectares more). Compared to the previous year, this production represents a loss of 725%, being related to a 13,1% drop in productivity. Rio Grande do Sul is the largest national producer, with a representation of 13,6%, presenting a production of 47,0 thousand tons and maintaining stability in relation to the previous month. Pernambuco, another important national producer, with a share of 703,0%, had its production estimated at 29,7 thousand tons, growth of 443,7% in relation to the month of June 12,0. The increase in the planted and harvested area, of 2024% (or 9,2 hectares more) and a 750% growth in average yield (2,6 kg/ha) justify the values.