High levels of rainfall impact Brazilian wheat production

Above-average rainfall, especially in regions with the highest wheat production in Brazil, such as Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul, already indicates strong impacts on the volume of this year's harvest. With the country heading towards the final third of its harvest, the forecast volume produced is lower, compared to the results of 2022. 

According to the Latam Regional Manager of Biotrigo Genética, Fernando Wagner, the most recent data from the National Supply Company (Conab) points to an estimated production of 10,4 million tons of wheat. The professional says that it is not just the rain that influences this result. “With an accelerated crop development cycle in the South region due to the hot climate, the productivity estimated by Conab is also lower, close to 3 thousand kg/ha”.

Rains in the South trigger warning in the market

In Paraná, the state least affected by high rainfall, the harvest was brought forward, according to SafraSul Agronegócios market analyst, José Gilmar de Oliveira. He explains that the wheat already harvested presents a good performance in terms of quality, highlighting that the cereal that is still in the field is the one that will be impacted by the rain.

“In the Campos Gerais region, for example, a new application of fungicide to the planted wheat would also be appropriate. However, this was not possible due to climate issues. Even so, a harvest of 4,5 million tons is expected in Paraná”, he points out.

Rio Grande do Sul, the state that recorded the largest volume of wheat in the previous harvest, faces the consequences of the rains with more intensity. As the Manager of institutional and union relations at the Organization of Cooperatives of the State of Rio Grande do Sul (Ocergs), Tarcísio Minetto, explains, the producer from Rio Grande do Sul initially invested in this crop due to the drought in the summer.

“Because of this, the estimated cultivation area is 1,5 million hectares, equivalent to last year. However, excessive rain reduced the productive potential in this space. Today, the harvest does not have a volume estimate, due to the losses caused by this phenomenon”, he reinforces.

Expectations for wheat from Santa Catarina were also reduced. Data brought by the founder of Corretora Serra Grãos, Norberto Risson dos Santos, indicates that the most optimistic projection currently is that 410 thousand tons will be produced in the state. Initially, a volume of 470 thousand tons was expected.

“In this scenario, the cost for the producer to keep this wheat in good condition ends up rising, as the rain directly impacts the quality of the cereal produced”, he states.

Situation in São Paulo and the Cerrado

São Paulo, in recent years, has experienced an increase in its harvest, having surpassed 500 thousand tons of wheat in 2022. This year, the president of the Wheat Sector Chamber in the state, Ruy Zanardi, explains that the projections are in the region of 520 thousand tons, with gains in quality.

“95% of São Paulo’s harvest has already been harvested, with a small portion of the total value still susceptible to rain. The quality this year, without a doubt, is higher than that recorded in the previous harvest, which is positive for the production chain in São Paulo”, he highlights.

The Cerrado, however, is an area that follows the opposite flow of other producing areas. Even with the incidence of rain and the hot climate anticipating the wheat development cycle, the planted area and the total volume produced by Minas Gerais, Goiás, Bahia and the Federal District are the largest ever recorded, as reported by the president of the Association of Wheat farmers from the State of Minas Gerais (Atrie - MG), Eduardo Abrahim.

“We expect a harvest of close to one million tons of wheat for 2023, with exceptional quality. For next year, the trend is that a larger area will be allocated to cereal production in these four states”, he concludes.