Hedgepoint raises estimate for Brazilian soybean harvest

Hedgepoint Global Markets' new estimate points to record soybean production in Brazil in 2024/25, reaching 171,5 million tons, an increase of 700 thousand tons compared to January. According to Luiz Fernando Roque, Market Intelligence Coordinator, the positive adjustment is due to the high productivity recorded in states such as Mato Grosso, Goiás, Minas Gerais and Bahia, favored by the weather after the start of the rains in October 2024.

These productivities help to compensate for losses in Rio Grande do Sul and Mato Grosso do Sul, where drought affected crops, mainly in January of this year, leading to negative adjustments in the average productivity expected for these states.

The weather in the coming weeks could still impact final production, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, where the harvest begins in March. “As of Friday (14), 27% of the crop had already been harvested, a slightly slower pace than last year (29%), but above the average of the last five harvests (25%), showing recovery from initial delays,” notes the analyst.

NDVI: Vegetation Index (Key States)

“The analysis of the “normalized difference vegetation indices” (NDVI) confirms our estimates of high productivity for Mato Grosso, Goiás and Minas Gerais, where the values ​​remained above average, indicating good crop development”, says Luiz.

And he continues: “In Rio Grande do Sul, the index reflects a less healthy development of plants compared to previous years, but without indicating a “catastrophe” at the state level. The recent improvement in climate helped bring the indexes closer to the average considered normal, bringing some relief to the crops in Rio Grande do Sul.”

Crop development and climate

Data from Conab indicate that, as of February 16, 28,7% of Brazilian crops were in the grain filling phase, with the majority in Rio Grande do Sul. In addition, 2,1% were still in vegetative development and 7,4% in flowering, also concentrated in the state. “These numbers reinforce the need for climate monitoring in the coming weeks for the Rio Grande do Sul harvest. Compared to last year, there was an increase in the grain filling phase (24,6% in 2023), but a reduction in the vegetative development (5,5%) and flowering (13,4%) phases”, it points out.

“Climate maps indicate low humidity between February 20 and 26 in most of Brazil, favoring the advancement of the harvest in the central region. However, the drought in the South Region may worsen crop conditions in Rio Grande do Sul,” he warns.

Between February 27 and March 5, humidity returns to Rio Grande do Sul and northern Mato Grosso, while heavy rains in the North Region may hinder harvesting and the flow of the crop to the ports of the Northern Arc, impacting export premiums and basis. “In addition, higher temperatures in the next 14 days in Rio Grande do Sul, combined with low humidity, may further harm crops. For March, the forecast continues to point to low humidity in the South, increasing the risk of production losses,” he concludes.