Grain production is record in the 2021/22 harvest, points out Conab

Brazilian grain production in the 2021/22 harvest is estimated at 271,2 million tons, an increase of almost 14,5 million tons, when compared to the previous cycle, as shown in the 12th Grain Harvest Survey published this Thursday- fair (8) by the National Supply Company (Conab).

“Although it has experienced climatic adversities in some producing regions, mainly in the states in the southern region of the country, this is the largest harvest ever recorded within the historical series of grain production in Brazil”, highlights the president of Conab, Guilherme Ribeiro.

The main cultivated product, soybeans' development was marked by high temperatures in important producing regions, such as crops in Paraná, Santa Catarina and part of Mato Grosso do Sul. This adverse climatic condition had a severe impact on productivity, influencing the drop in production . In Rio Grande do Sul, for example, the recorded drop exceeded 50%. Given this scenario, the grain harvest in the country is estimated at 125,6 million tons, a reduction of approximately 10% compared to the 2020/21 harvest.

In the case of corn, there was a recovery in total production with a harvest estimated at 113,2 million tons, which represents an increase of 30% when compared to the previous cycle. While in the first harvest there was a certain stability in production at 24,9 million tons, due to unfavorable weather conditions mainly in the southern states, the second harvest was marked by a recovery in production of around 41,8%, being estimated at 86,1 million tons. 

The result was not better due to the lack of rain in Goiás, São Paulo and Minas Gerais. In these states, in addition to the drought, there were records of leafhopper attacks on crops, a pest that also affected productivity in Paraná.

“Two harvests ago, leafhoppers were recorded in regions with cold climates. Since then, the plague has appeared more recurrently. For the 2022/23 harvest, producers need to pay close attention to the emergence of this vector in order to try to better control it", explains the director of Agricultural Information and Agricultural Policies, Sergio De Zen.

Another important product, cotton, had its productivity partially affected by water stress in some crops, while the quality of the lint, which has an estimated production of 2,55 million tons, is very good due to the climate. On the other hand, the lack of rain favors the progress of the harvest, scheduled to end in September. Also noteworthy is sorghum, which, driven by corn prices, records a record production of 2,85 million tons, an increase of 36,9% compared to the last harvest.

Bean producers faced climate problems in all 3 legume crops. Still, production is estimated at approximately 3 million tons, which meets the country's supply. In the case of rice, the total volume to be harvested is estimated at 10,8 million tons, showing a decrease compared to 2020/21, due to less area allocated for planting, as well as the reduction in the national average productivity. Still, production is also sufficient for domestic market demand.

Soybean mapping

In this edition, the Company presents the results of mapping areas cultivated with soybeans. In the 2020/2021 harvest, the work was carried out in the states of the Central-West region and in Rondônia. In the current season, the methodology was used for the Matopiba region, comprising Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia. With the conclusion of the activities, it was possible to improve the analysis processes and provide information with greater security and transparency to society, as well as promoting the application of new technologies in the Company's harvest estimates in collaboration with Inpe. In addition to enabling access to the location of areas cultivated with soybeans, based on remote sensing and geostatistics, the state-owned company updated the soybean area estimates for the region based on this work.

winter crops

Among winter crops, Conab projects record production for wheat, reaching 9,4 million tons. There was a slight delay in sowing in the south of the country due to excessive rainfall, but conditions are favorable for crop development.

Market

 Externally, the Company adjusted the volume to be exported for cotton, given the slight drop in production expectations when compared to the volume expected in the last survey. As a result, foreign sales should reach 1,9 million tons. The estimate for final stocks remains stable, projected at around 1,3 million tons.

In the case of soybeans, final stocks were updated based on the results of the crop mapping work. With the data review, the carryover stock for the 2020/21 harvest increased to 8,85 million tons, which also influences an increase in the final stocks of the current harvest, estimated at 6,19 million tons. The oilseed export projection was also raised, with the expectation of reaching a volume of 77,19 million tons. Between January and August, 66,6 million tons have already been exported.

There is also an increase in the carryover stock for wheat in 2023, influenced by the higher production expected for the cereal. In the new estimate, the forecast is that the stock will end at 1,6 million tons for the harvest with a commercial year from August 2022 to July 2023. In the case of corn, the drop in productivity in important producing regions in the second harvest, reduced the expected volume for consumption and export of the cereal, now estimated at 76,5 million tons and 37 million tons respectively. Even with these drops, the projection for final stock was also slightly reduced, from 9,7 million tons to 9,4 million tons.

As for rice, Conab predicts lower consumption of the product when compared to the survey released in August, and should reach a level of 10,8 volume, stable in relation to the previous harvest. As a result, transit stocks will be at more comfortable levels, with forecasts for them to close the year at 2,36 million tons. It is important to highlight that both the exported and imported volumes for 2022 have been revised. Thus, the new forecast is that Brazil will export 1,4 million tons and import 1 million tons of rice in 2022, with the motivation for the adjustments being to monitor the evolution of exports to date. For beans, the numbers in the supply table did not show significant changes in this survey.

Complete data on the 12th Survey of the 2021/22 Grain Harvest and the market conditions for these products can be seen at Conab Portal, while detailed information on soybean mapping is published in Company Information Portal. Other details about the effects of climate on harvests are regularly available in editions of Monitoring Crop Conditions and Conab Agricultural Monitoring Bulletin.