Grain market follows exchange rate and tax war

The week was marked by the advance of planting in the United States, heated exports in Brazil and exchange rate changes in Argentina that should affect competitiveness in the international market. The grain market scenario was addressed in the Grão Direto Specialist Analysis, released today (22/4).

In soybeans, Brazil expects shipments of 14,5 million tons in April, while China has reduced purchases due to the tariff war with the US. In corn, US planting is progressing at a slower pace than last year and Brazil, with a robust harvest, continues to have sustained domestic demand. Despite exchange rate volatility and occasional drops in prices, the overall scenario remains positive for Brazilian agribusiness. Check out the full analysis: 

How did the soybean market behave?

North American harvest: This week, the USDA released the first report on the progress of planting for the 2025/26 harvest in the United States, indicating that 2% of the expected area has already been sown.

Heated exports: Brazil's soybean exports in April were estimated at 14,5 million tonnes, an increase of 1,2 million tonnes compared to the previous week's projection, according to the National Association of Cereal Exporters (Anec);

End of the “dollar blend”: The Argentine government has decided to unify the dollar, putting an end to the “blend dollar”, which was created to be used in exports. The measure should bring more predictability to the market and may stimulate the sale of soybeans and derivatives.

In Chicago, the May 2025 soybean contract closed at US$10,36 per bushel, down slightly by 0,77% over the week. The March 2026 contract saw the opposite movement, closing at US$10,45 per bushel (+0,58%). The dollar fell 1,02%, closing the week at R$5,81. In the physical market, soybeans followed the international scenario, closing the week with a decline in several regions throughout the week.

What to expect from the soybean market?

China vs. Tariff War: In March 2025, China purchased 3,5 million tons of soybeans, according to the Chinese Customs Authority (GACC). This number represents a 40% drop compared to February and a 37% drop compared to March of the previous year. The main cause of this decline in purchases was the worsening trade disputes with the United States, which led Beijing to apply 125% tariffs on North American products, including soybeans. With a robust harvest and a less supplied North American market, Brazilian shipments to China are expected to increase significantly in the coming months.

Argentina more competitive: The unification of the currency in Argentina aims to simplify the system and attract more exports, making Argentine grains potentially more competitive on the international stage. This change could put pressure on Brazil, which will face greater competition in soybean and meal exports, especially in relation to export premiums and global prices. Argentina, as a leader in soybean meal, could directly influence the market, requiring increased attention from the Brazilian sector.

Volatile dollar: In recent days, the dollar has fallen against the real, closing at around R$5,80, influenced by a more favorable external environment and positive expectations about Brazil's fiscal adjustment. For next week, the trend is for stability or a slight decline, depending on news on the international scene and the government's signals about the control of public accounts. Volatility should continue, but the bias is for the current level to be maintained, barring any relevant surprises.

After a week marked by indecision, the market may face greater volatility in the coming days. A slight correction in prices in Chicago is still expected, following the strong increases recorded recently. Even so, the scenario remains positive and continues to be favorable for trading.

How did the corn market behave?

US Planting: Corn planting in the United States has advanced, reaching 4% of the planned area, a slight delay compared to the same period last year, when the rate was 6%.

Heated exports: According to Secex, in just 9 days of April 2025, Brazil has already exported 55% more corn than in the whole of April 2024, totaling just over 120 thousand tons.

In Chicago, corn closed the week at US$4,82 per bushel, down 1,43%. In Brazil, on B3, the corn contract for May 2025 also fell, closing at R$76,75 per bag (-3,25%). As a result, corn prices fell in the physical market, discouraging sales by producers.

What to expect from the corn market?

Exports under threat: Brazil is expected to harvest the second largest corn crop in history, exceeding 120 million tons. Despite the high supply, domestic consumption — driven mainly by growing demand from ethanol plants — tends to support prices, especially in the event of climate impacts at the end of the cycle. With the increase in domestic consumption, the surplus for export is expected to decrease, which could threaten the country's position as the world's second largest exporter of the cereal. This scenario should bring more interest from producers in planting corn, which could compete directly with the soybean area in the Summer Harvest.

North American harvest: In the United States, planting of the 2025/26 crop is progressing at a pace in line with the historical average, but colder weather in the Midwest could cause delays in the coming weeks. The market is closely monitoring these conditions, as the weather could bring volatility to prices, given the expectation of a large corn harvest. At the same time, the trade war between the US and China continues to influence Chinese demand, opening up space for Brazil to take advantage of opportunities in the international market.

Corn 2nd Harvest Brazil: According to Conab, climate conditions vary between regions, with regular rainfall favoring good crop development in Mato Grosso, Goiás and Minas Gerais. In Paraná and Tocantins, the lack of rainfall and excessive heat affect productivity. In Mato Grosso do Sul, irregular rainfall in the Center-South causes losses, while crops in the North remain very productive, while crops in the North remain in good condition. In Piauí, crop development is regular, reflecting more unfavorable conditions. This entire scenario leads the market to believe that Brazil will have a significant harvest, boosting the country's domestic demand.

The domestic corn market will continue to be supported by demand, but the recent drop in prices on the B3 exchange caused negative pressure on the physical market, being seen as a healthy price correction. Despite this correction, the scenario remains favorable, with prices still favorable due to the maintenance of demand.