Good prospects for agriculture in São Paulo after the start of the year with rain

For the first time since 2020, rural producers in São Paulo are experiencing a start to the year with good rainfall. The climate began to turn in favor of the farmer at the end of last year. According to the report Analysis of Hydrometeorological Conditions of the State of São Paulo, in December 2022 the precipitation averages were high in relation to the historical average, eliminating the water restriction that was observed in São Paulo in recent seasons. Rainfall was above 200 millimeters in almost all regions, especially Alta Mogiana and the surrounding area of ​​Ribeirão Preto.

In January the rains continued to be a positive surprise. At the request of the Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of the State of São Paulo (FAESP), six producers from different regions of São Paulo told their perceptions on the topic. And there is a unanimous opinion: we can expect good results in different cultures.

“It’s raining a lot, which is a very good thing because it hasn’t rained with this intensity in 20 years. From December 10th to the end of January there were 1.020 millimeters here in Altinópolis”, reports Guilherme Vicentini, coffee producer. For citrus grower Frauzo Sanches, it is easy to feel the difference compared to previous years. “We came from two very bad years, and now the expectation is that it will be a good harvest. The rain started earlier and the water regime is a little better,” he says.

But the increase in rainfall does not only bring benefits. “An interesting fact is that everything in excess ends up not being good. It’s the same thing with rain”, observes Roberto Figueiredo, a sugarcane and grain producer. In fact, the more intense rainfall requires additional care, related to plant nutrition, low incidence of sunlight, excess humidity and the proliferation of fungi and bacteria.

Coffee and citrus

Farmers in São Paulo have had good and bad times at the beginning of 2023. Part of these issues are a reflection of climate events in 2021 and 2022, such as coffee growing. According to Vicentini, the coffee harvest will not be better because the plantations are still impacted by past seasons, when there was a lack of rain. “The flowering set was impaired, so we have few fruits on the plant. The granation will be good in these few fruits that exist, but we believe that it will not be a very large harvest. She is damaged because we came from two years of frustration and physiological problems,” he says. Furthermore, the January rains created an additional problem: there were almost 20 days with little natural light. “The plant enters a condition in which it does not carry out photosynthesis and grows less. We are also starting to see problems with rust and pseudomonas, with the low temperature and cold winds”, highlights the producer. As the coffee areas are exposed, he adds, there is a higher incidence of diseases and control under these conditions is also impaired.

In this scenario, for coffee, the best outlook is for the 2024 harvest – so much so that coffee growers are carrying out interventions in the crop, such as pruning, to improve the outlook. “The crops have started to respond now, but it was supposed to be more closed, more leafy. Let's see what good the rain will bring. I have the impression that within two or three months the outlook for 2024 will be defined”, says Vicentini.

In the case of citrus farming, the change was also significant. Frauzo Sanches remembers well the years following 2020, when the drought in the region was historic – from an average of 1250 mm, it rained between 850 mm and 900 mm in 2020 and 2021, respectively. “The plants didn't die, but as the rootstock we used is more susceptible to drought, some trees dried out and completely defoliated, it was very intense. 2021 came and we had plant mortality”, he recalls, about what he saw in his 25 hectares of orange groves, where irrigation is not used. At the beginning of the year, the average is already stabilizing at historical levels. “In the first 15 days of 2023, compared to 2021, it rained a little more than twice as much. The previous period, the end of 2022, was also much better. It started earlier, had better regularity, so, thinking about citrus, it’s very good,” he says. Despite this, the orange harvest is still not expected to surpass last year's. Depending on the continuity of the rains, the prospect is that the harvest will be similar to the previous one.

Soy, corn and other grains

Grain producer Márcio Antônio Vassoler says that, in his region, soybeans have responded well to the climate – but that regional differences influence the results between one area and another. “Here in Tupã the rain is more regular than in Presidente Prudente, where it is raining, but not constantly. I was in the Bauru region and the rains are more intense, stronger, but we are not seeing any damage. The year is going very well for agriculture, and if it continues like this it will be great,” he says. The same perception is shared by Roberto. “In soybeans, the scenario is very promising, although prices have not had a very good outlook. But we expect production to be above average,” he says. Some producers in the region had their crops affected by hail, resulting in the replanting of around 150 hectares in November 2022.

Marcos Almeida, soybean and corn producer, says that the turning point came from October 2022 – since then, rainfall has already exceeded 800 mm. “Soybeans are developing well and corn has already been defined, because planting has advanced. We project that production will be 65 to 80 bags of soybeans per hectare, and around 140 bags per hectare of corn”, he calculates. For Cássio Leme, the word that has defined this beginning of the year, from a climatic point of view, is balance. “Here for soybeans it is going well, it is raining well in the crucial areas for soybeans and corn. There is no problem with either excess or lack of rain,” he summarizes.

In the Tupã region, where Vassoler speaks, there is also corn and peanuts, whose performance is as expected. “We are planting corn, which is not much in the region, but it is going well. Peanuts have to pay attention, because they don't like water and the producer needs to spray. But it’s going well too, it has great production prospects,” he notes.

Sugarcane and pasture

As a grass, sugar cane is among the crops that have responded best to rain. So much so that, according to Roberto, the sugar and alcohol plants in the region to which he is a supplier are preparing to receive an extra volume of raw material. “We are experiencing above-average rainfall and this is a fantastic scenario for sugarcane, which is predominant in our region. The outlook is for a good harvest, both in terms of production and productivity. In meetings with the people at the plants, we learned that they are preparing to receive an above-average harvest”, he celebrates. The sugarcane fields come from a previous difficult period, in which frosts and droughts negatively affected productivity.

But not everything is flowers, and excessive rain can make the plant suffer from a lack of nutrients. “Excessive rain favors the leaching of some nutrients, such as boron, so it is a good idea for producers to pay attention to applications now, carry out nutrient analysis and see if there is a need to replace any of them”, he recommends.

Speaking of grasses, pastures are also doing well. “Pasture production is also very promising. The rancher who manages the areas well and follows the coverage recommendations will have an interesting condition for feeding his cattle”, adds Roberto. The scenario is repeated in other regions of the state, such as the border with Mato Grosso do Sul, where Marcos works with grains and pasture. Owner of a property in the neighboring state, he has observed the differences between one and the other. “It’s already dry there, it’s not raining and they’re losing soybeans to the drought. But in São Paulo, all the crops you pass by, you will see that they are good”, he celebrates.