Freight increases in all states analyzed

The price of freight in November 2022 increased in all markets analyzed by Conab. The conclusion appears in the December edition of the company's logistics bulletin. Price variation ranged between 9% (on the Campo Mourão to Paranaguá - PR route) and 96% (on the Cristalina to São Simão - GO route), compared to the same period of the previous year. On the other hand, in comparison with October 2022, there is stability or small variations.

The month of November 2022 showed weakened demand for freight in most of the states analyzed, with typical off-season movement. The market is expected to revive from January 2023, with the acceleration of the soybean harvest. In general, the domestic market maintained a firm demand for grains and bran destined for the animal feed producing regions in southern Brazil, partially offsetting the decrease in export volume.

Regarding prices, the other markets follow similar behavior to that recorded in the state of Goiás, with a general increase in freight prices when compared to the same period in 2021. In relation to the values ​​practiced last month, there is a slight drop for the majority of the squares.

In some places, specific issues contributed to the fluctuations. In Mato Grosso do Sul, for example, uncertainties regarding the political moment, expectations regarding market behavior, among other factors, influenced the reduction in product movements towards ports. In the Federal District, the rainy weather during this period was also a factor that limited local grain shipments.

In Paraná, in addition to the protests on the highways, the drop in demand was also due to the low availability of soybeans in the Ponta Grossa region, since around 99% of production had already been sold. In the Sealba region (Sergipe, Alagoas and Bahia) and central Bahia, there was a balance between supply and demand for the transport of corn and fruit and vegetables and prices were stable. In Piauí, the downward trend in prices can be explained mainly by the decrease in stocks, as observed in October and intensified in November.

Exports

The accumulated volume of corn exports between January and November 2022 reached 48,87 million tons, compared to 22,27 million tons recorded in the same period last year, which represents growth of 119,4%. The strong pace of Brazilian exports has been driven by excellent international prices throughout the season, despite recent expectations, which point to greater slack in global supply and demand. 

Until the beginning of this year, China imported corn mainly from the United States and Ukraine. With the war with Russia and the disagreement with the Chinese government, due to the Taiwanese issue, the Asian giant began to purchase more alternative products, such as sorghum and barley, in addition to seeking new corn suppliers. The scenario benefited negotiations with Brazil, and exports of national corn to China are already increasing from this commercial harvest.

On the other hand, Brazilian soybean exports fell by 7,9%, reflecting the reduction in Brazilian production this year and the slower pace observed in domestic sales. The accumulated volume traded between January and November 2022 was 88,14 million tons, compared to 95,72 million in the same period of 2021. The last few weeks have been marked by fluctuations on the Chicago Stock Exchange, particularly due to the return of the “soy dollar ” in Argentina, which came back into force on November 28th. 

The "soy dollar” establishes a specific exchange rate for the soybean complex, which strongly boosted sales in that country, to the point that Argentine grains removed buyers from the United States, negatively impacting Chicago. Additionally, the devaluation of the dollar in Brazil weakens the potential for foreign sales. In comparison with Brazilian exports in October 2022, the oilseed presented a reduction of 31,7% in November.