Forecast for November is irregular rains and high temperatures

The forecast from the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) for the month of November indicates rainfall (Figure 1a) between normal (gray tone) and above average (blue tone) in much of the Southeast region, Goiás, east-central Mato Grosso, Acre, Roraima, northwest and southeast Amazonas. Rio Grande do Sul will have precipitation in the normal range (gray tone), with some locations above average (blue tones). 

In much of the Northeast region, north-central Pará, Amapá, Roraima, as well as the southwest of Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso, rainfall close to and below the climatological average is expected (gray and yellow tones on the map in Figure 1a).

Considering Inmet's climate forecast for November 2024 and its possible impacts on the main crops, the forecast of little rain for the northeast of the Amazon region and a large part of the Northeast region points to a reduction in soil moisture levels, mainly in Matopiba (a region that encompasses the states of Maranhão, Tocantins, Piauí and Bahia), which could hinder the advancement of soybean planting. 

For the Central-West and Southeast regions, November will be marked by the recovery of soil moisture levels, due to the forecast of more regular rainfall that will favor the planting and development of first-crop crops. In much of the South Region, rainfall is forecast to be close to the historical average and soil moisture levels will remain high and may benefit winter crops that are in the grain filling phase, as well as the development of the 2024/2025 harvest.

Temperature

As for temperatures, the forecast indicates that they should be above average in much of the country (orange tones on the map in Figure 1b), with the possibility of some days of excessive heat (red tones), mainly in areas in the north of the North and Northeast regions, where average temperatures could exceed 28ºC. 

In some locations in the east of the Southeast region and South region, temperatures close to or slightly below average are expected in some specific locations (gray and blue tones on the map in Figure 1b), due to the occurrence of consecutive days with rain that can alleviate the temperature.