Final data from the 2018/2019 harvest in the Center-South region indicate 573,07 million tons of sugar cane processed between April 1, 2018 and March 31, 2019. This result represents a reduction of 3,90% over the 596,33 million tons registered in the 2017/2018 cycle.
For UNICA's technical director, Antonio de Padua Rodrigues, "the drop in crushing was lower than expected by the market after more than 100 days of dry weather observed from the end of March 2018". The reversal occurred because early rains in spring reduced the drop in agricultural productivity expected for the last third of the harvest, ensuring greater availability of raw materials, added the executive.
Among the Central-South States, the biggest decline in crushing was observed in São Paulo, which registered a drop of 6,68% (333,29 million tons in the 2018/2019 harvest, compared to 357,14 million in the last cycle).
"The reduction in São Paulo's supply is due to lower agricultural productivity, with a drop of 3,84% and a yield of 73,40 tons of sugarcane per hectare, and the reduction in the harvest area, estimated at around 140 thousand hectares", he explained. Rodrigues.
Final ethanol production in the Center-South reached an impressive 30,95 billion liters, an all-time record for the supply of renewable energy. This is a significant increase of 18,63% over the volume of the last harvest (26,09 billion liters) and growth of 9,67% compared to the previous production record, seen in the 2015/2016 harvest (28,22 .XNUMX billion liters).
The biggest highlight in the 2018/2019 harvest was the growth in the production of hydrated ethanol. Even with the decline in the volume of sugar cane, the production units increased the supply of renewable sugar by more than 6 billion liters.
Of the total volume produced, 9,14 billion liters were of anhydrous ethanol and 21,81 billion liters of hydrated ethanol - the latter, an increase of 39,17% compared to the 15,67 billion liters recorded in the previous harvest year .
Corn ethanol production grew 50% compared to the volume produced in the 2017/2018 harvest, totaling 791,43 million liters.
For the director of UNICA, "data from the 2018/2019 harvest shows the ethanol industry's ability to respond when there are stimuli in the right direction." The numbers also make it clear that the sector is capable of meeting the production growth expected for the coming years, as "the volume manufactured in this harvest is equivalent to the target expected for Renovabio in 2024", added Rodrigues.
Final sugar production, in turn, reached 26,50 million tons in the 2018/2019 harvest, a drop of 26,51% over the 36,06 million tons recorded in the last cycle.
This decline of 9,56 million tons in sugar manufacturing reflects the intense change in the production mix by units in the Center-South. In fact, in the 2018/2019 harvest the proportion of sugarcane directed to sugar production reached 35,20%, compared to 46,46% recorded in the same period of the 2017/2018 cycle.
"This change in the mix highlights the competitive advantage of the Brazilian sugar-energy sector, unmatched by any other sugar-producing region in the world, and which allows for better price risk management by the mills", concluded Rodrigues.
Regarding the number of units in operation in the Center-South, a survey by the Sugarcane Industry Union (UNICA) indicates 267 plants with production in 2018/2019.
In the 2018/2019 harvest, the Total Recoverable Sugar (ATR) content reached 137,87 kg per ton of raw material, the highest rate since the 2010/2011 cycle. In comparison with the result obtained for 2017/2018 (136,59 kg per ton of sugar cane), there was an increase of 0,94%.
This increase in the concentration of sugar per ton was essential to compensate for the decrease in the amount of sugar cane processed in the 2018/2019 harvest. Thus, despite the 3,91% drop in crushing, total ATR production in the harvest decreased by only 3,01%.
Regarding agricultural productivity data, information collected by the Sugarcane Technology Center (CTC) indicates that the harvested crop yield reached 73,34 tons per hectare in the 2018/2019 harvest, a reduction of 3,31% compared to 75,85 tons per hectare observed in 2017/2018.
Production and milling in the 2nd half of March 2019
In the second half of March 2, crushing in the Center-South region reached 2019 million tons, with 7,02 thousand tons of sugar manufactured. Ethanol production totaled 137,33 million liters, 380,40 million liters of anhydrous ethanol and 38,62 million liters of hydrated ethanol.
The volume of reprocessed hydrated ethanol (anhydrous ethanol reprocessed and converted into hydrated ethanol) reached 24,5 million liters, while corn ethanol production totaled 46,38 million liters.
Regarding the number of units in harvest, 81 plants registered production in the Center-South region until March 31, 2019, with 73 units processing sugarcane and 8 plants producing corn ethanol. This number is practically identical to that observed on the same date in 2018 (82 companies). By the end of the first half of April this year, the number of units in operation should reach 176 companies.
"The rains observed in recent weeks have compromised the operationalization of the harvest, but should allow for better development of the sugarcane field that will be harvested in the final two thirds of the harvest", added Rodrigues.
In the aggregate of the 2018/2019 harvest, ethanol sales totaled 31,08 billion liters, an increase of 17,53% when compared to the 26,44 billion liters sold in the 2017/2018 cycle. Of this volume, 1,63 billion liters were destined for export and 29,44 billion liters for the domestic market.
As a result, the ethanol trade balance in the 2018/2019 harvest showed net exports of 287 million liters with a positive balance in foreign exchange generation of US$304 million, according to data from the Secretariat of Foreign Trade (SECEX).
In the domestic market, sales of hydrated ethanol stood out, totaling 20,90 billion liters, an increase of 34,84% over that recorded in the 2017/2018 cycle (15,49 billion liters). Sales of anhydrous ethanol, in the opposite direction, decreased by 9,48%: 8,54 billion liters in the 2018/2019 harvest compared to 9,43 billion liters in the previous cycle.
Specifically in the second half of March, the volume of anhydrous ethanol sold domestically reached 447,43 million liters, an increase of 10,75% over the same period last year.
"This behavior observed at the end of March is most likely due to the replenishment of stocks by distributors to comply with ANP Resolution No. 67/2011 and the greater volume of anhydrous sent for consumption in the North-Northeast region", explained Rodrigues.
Hydrous ethanol sales in the last half of March reached 851,51 million liters, an increase of 19,20% compared to the 714,35 million liters recorded in the same fortnight of 2018.
According to the executive, "sales of renewable energy were not higher due to the anticipation of purchases by distributors at the end of February and the greater difficulty in removing the product at the end of the month."
Rodrigues explains that "generally, hydrate sales decrease in the off-season and demand takes several weeks to reestablish itself after crushing begins." This year, however, the executive clarifies that the volume of renewables sold remained high in March and we must work with a heated market since the first week of the 2019/2020 harvest.
Namely, information published by the National Agency for Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) and compiled by UNICA shows an average drop, over the past week, of R$0,07 per liter in the price of ethanol charged by gas stations in the state of Sao Paulo.
Rodrigues makes the reservation that "in recent days the drop in the price of hydrous that was being observed at the producer was interrupted as a result of the rains and the greater difficulty of harvesting". Transit stocks, however, still offer full conditions for regular supply to the domestic market in April, added the executive.
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