Fertilizer market challenges producers in the 2025/26 harvest

Brazil begins the 2025/26 harvest in one of the most challenging scenarios in recent years in the fertilizer market, marked by very unfavorable terms of trade. According to StoneX, a global financial services company, this trend is observed in other countries and tends to put pressure on farmers' margins and put producers who lack effective cost and risk management in difficulty.

According to Market Intelligence analyst Tomás Pernías, the last time the current exchange rate was observed was in 2022, the year in which the war between Russia and Ukraine broke out and fertilizer prices soared.

In the case of MAP (phosphate), 2025 has been a year of tight global supply, with fierce competition among buyers. According to the analyst, prices have remained high and, combined with weakened soybean prices, have resulted in some of the worst exchange rates ever recorded.

"At critical times, producers needed at least 30 bags of soybeans to purchase one ton of MAP. This situation led Brazilian importers to seek alternatives based on less concentrated phosphorus, which sometimes offered better value for money," Pernías emphasizes.

In the urea market, volatility prevailed throughout 2025, without bringing consistent benefits to Brazilian buyers. Export restrictions imposed by China, a major global supplier, reduced supply, while India, a strong importer, maintained active purchases due to the monsoons favorable for fertilizer applications. This movement supported international prices.

"In recent days, signs of relief have emerged. China announced the partial resumption of phosphate exports, and international demand has shown resistance to higher prices, generating recent price drops. Even so, as a significant portion of Brazilian purchases for the next harvest have already been completed, the high costs recorded throughout the year should be absorbed by the sector in the season that begins soon," concludes the analyst.