Farsul projects 2020/2021 harvest with new drop in corn and recovery in soybeans

Rio Grande do Sul is expected to increase grain production by 28,4% in the 2020/2021 harvest, with an estimated harvest of 33,9 million tons. The Farsul System projection, released on Wednesday, December 8, indicates a partial recovery after last year's frustrated cycle, when a severe drought hit the State and left losses of more than 8 million tons in the field.

On the one hand, soybeans should increase production by 75,8% - to 19,8 million tons, a volume even above the 2018/2019 harvest. But on the other hand, corn is likely to suffer from a second drought in a row and have even worse results than last year. The lack of rain at the beginning of the grain's development, mainly in the Northwest Region, tends to reduce production to just 3 million tons, 28% less compared to the previous harvest and 47% below 2018/2019.

The Farsul System still estimates a 15,3% increase in wheat volume next year, while rice is expected to record a 3,4% drop after last harvest's record productivity. Overall, producers should harvest around 2% less than in 2018/2019, even with an increase of 6,6% in the planted area in the same period.

In 2020/2021 alone, crop expansion should reach 3%, driven by soybean, corn, rice and wheat crops. In the last harvest, the planted area had already increased by 3,5%, with emphasis on winter crops, indicating better use of the space already occupied in the summer.

For the president of Sistema Farsul, Gedeão Pereira, the numbers show that the sector was able to mitigate the impact of the 2019/2020 losses. "The producer is believing in his activity like never before. We are not living from this recent past, but from the market perspective for 2021, which is excellent for all agribusiness products", he assesses. But the leader also calls for solutions to unlock investments in irrigation in adverse climate situations.

The coordinator of the Farsul Environment Commission, Domingos Lopes, states that the State's problem is not the volume of rain, but its distribution. Therefore, investment in irrigation should be encouraged, but this is not what happens in practice. And the problem is not in financing or bureaucracy, as there is credit available for this purpose and there are no restricted licensing processes for rainfed crops. "The problem is that the producer doesn't even submit applications. He is aware that he will not obtain the license because he will not be able to comply with environmental legislation", he says.

In the Northern Half, producers try to make small interventions in Permanent Preservation Areas to reserve water, but the legislation considers that actions in these places can only occur for social interest or public utility, leaving room for contrary interpretation. In the Southern Half, farmers still live with the impasse of a public civil action by the Public Ministry that does not consider livestock activities as anthropic and demands 20% of the property's area as a Legal Reserve in the Pampa Biome, only with native fields, which also discourages investment.

According to the chief economist of the Farsul System, Antônio da Luz, the economic damage caused by the drought in 2019/2020 was worse for the State than in other historical droughts, in 2005 and 2012. "We lost more than 8 million tons, in good measure because we cannot irrigate, and thus we stop generating growth, GDP and jobs". Even so, there was an increase in planted area in the following year, which shows a "resilient" sector that is at odds with the economic environment in general. "Unfortunately, we will not have this effort rewarded with a record harvest, because we lost again in corn."