Family farmers need to adopt adaptation measures to face climate change, according to a study by FGVces

The Alto Tietê region, in São Paulo, is one of the main vegetable production centers in the country. This productivity, however, is threatened due to the effects of global climate change, which has altered the frequency and magnitude of extreme drought and flood events. In addition to putting cultivation and food supply at risk, this scenario also has the potential to negatively affect the livelihood of hundreds of family farmers, who have agricultural activity as their main or only source of income, indicates the study “Adaptation to changes climate change for family farming in the Green Belt of São Paulo”, carried out by the Center for Sustainability Studies of the Getulio Vargas Foundation (FGVces), with resources from the Citi Foundation and the Citi partnership.

The document is part of the Cinturão + Verde project, whose objective is to promote adaptation to climate change among family farmers in the Cinturão Verde region of São Paulo.

Carried out over 13 months, the pilot project focused on the Cabeceiras sub-basin, inserted in the Alto Tietê Hydrographic Basin, which comprises 10 municipalities, namely: Salesópolis, Biritiba-Mirim, Mogi das Cruzes, Suzano, Poá, Itaquaquecetuba, Ferraz of Vasconcelos, Arujá, Guarulhos and São Paulo.

Main results

The researchers carried out a climate risk analysis considering three dimensions: vulnerability, exposure and climate threat (Read more about the methodology below). In relation to the “climate threat”, the survey confirmed the increase in the frequency of extreme events, phenomena observed and reported by family farmers who participated in the pilot project. Check out some highlights of the analysis, which covers the periods from 1980 to 2013 (for maximum temperature, minimum temperature and evapotranspiration values) and 1980 and 2015 (for precipitation data:

• Intense rain: between 1980 and 2015, there was a tendency for extreme rain events to become more intense, especially in the central region of São Paulo and towards the east of the municipality, also covering the municipalities of Poá, Ferraz de Vasconcelos, Suzano;

• Dry days: considering the same period, a considerable increase in dry days was noted throughout the year in almost the entire territory of the Alto Tietê basin, with emphasis on the eastern region of the municipality of São Paulo, in addition to Poá, Ferraz de Vasconcelos , Suzano and Mogi das Cruzes. In 36 years, the increase in the number of days without rain in a year was approximately 13 to 20 days. The combination of the increase in intense rainfall with the concomitant increase in dry days, as is the case in the region between the central portion of São Paulo and the municipality of Suzano, indicates the intensification of extreme weather events;

• Maximum and minimum temperatures: analysis of the indicators confirmed, in general, a consistent increase in maximum and minimum temperatures in the region for both variables, demonstrating consistent increases throughout the entire territory. For the average maximum temperature, in addition to the variation trend being positive in all municipalities considered, it gradually increases towards the easternmost part of the basin. In this region, like the municipality of Salesópolis, in the last 33 years, the average maximum temperature has increased by approximately 2,2 °C. The minimum temperature follows a similar pattern, both the frequency of cold days is decreasing and the percentage of days in which the minimum temperature was below 10 °C is decreasing by 7,3% for the basin aggregate. Soon, the cold days are getting less cold;

• Extreme temperatures: According to the results obtained, in addition to the average increasing, the magnitude of extreme temperature events is also increasing, in this case, the frequency of days with extreme temperatures. Analysis of the percentage of days with temperatures above 30 degrees demonstrated that, for the Alto Tietê basin, in 33 years, there was an average increase of approximately 12% in the number of daily records that exceeded this mark.

Along with the intensification of extreme weather events, risks were observed in the other two dimensions analyzed.

One example is the fact that agricultural production is concentrated in a few crops; in general, crops that are more vulnerable to climate variations and extremes, such as lettuce. There are others: the inadequacy of the irrigation system to the demands of the region; farmers' dependence on income from agricultural production; the absence of government programs aimed at possible climate impacts on agriculture in the region; and the pressure of urbanization on rural areas.

“Based on this methodology, we understand that the impacts of climate change do not occur in isolation. Problems can become more or less intense, depending on the vulnerability of people and systems and whether or not they are exposed to events with the potential to generate losses and damages”, explains Samuel de Mello Pinto, researcher at FGVces.

Exclusive

In order to understand the susceptibility of the territory of the Alto Tietê basin to climate change, a climate risk analysis was carried out considering three dimensions: vulnerability, exposure and climate threat.

To understand the dimensions of “vulnerability” and “exposure”, the research team analyzed socio-territorial indicators, that is, data on the characteristics of agricultural production in the territory, the producer, the existence of productive organizations, such as associations and cooperatives, of different land uses, among others.

In the “climate threat” dimension, four climate variables were evaluated, obtained from a database of daily values, interpolated for the entire Brazilian territory, for a period of 30 years. They are: precipitation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and evapotranspiration -- the latter serving as input for calculating the climatological water balance.

The Cinturão+Verde project also involved field work with ten groups of farmers. Workshops and a series of engagement, awareness-raising and interaction activities were held, during which seven successful experiences of adapting to climate change by family farmers were also presented.