Exports from the Brazilian soy complex registered record volume and revenue in 2023

A new survey by Datagro Grãos confirms a strong overall volume shipped from the Brazilian soybean complex in 2023, with 126,818 million tons, a significant increase of 24,7% compared to 2022, when 101,681 million tons were exported. This total comprises 101,856 million tonnes of soybeans (+29,4%); 22,613 million tons of soybean meal (+11,1%); and 2,349 million tons of soybean oil (-9,6%). 

The main factors for this record are the large harvest harvested last year by Brazil, currently estimated at 160,234 million tons of soybeans, an amount 23% higher than the damaged previous season; significant losses in the United States in 2022, with an irregular harvest for the fourth consecutive year; advance in purchases by China after African swine fever (ASF) was overcome; tensions in political relations between the US and China; and greater competitiveness of the soybean complex due to the drop in price standards. 

A record was also recorded in total revenue obtained from exports from the Brazilian soybean complex in 2023, despite the strong decline in average prices. Total revenue was updated to US$67,377 billion, 10,9% more than in 2022, when US$60,748 billion was collected. Last year's revenue was made up of US$53,316 billion resulting from sales of soybeans (+14,7%); US$ 11,507 billion from bran sales (+11,4%); and US$ 2,554 billion of oil, the only one with a decrease compared to 2022 (-35,1%). 

“This extraordinary increase in revenue achieved by the sector's foreign sales contributed greatly to preventing the expected decline in the country's global exports in 2023, which reflected the decrease in the growth rate of the Brazilian economy. For this reason, we confirm the new record in the participation of the soybean complex in Brazil's general export list”, comments Flávio Roberto de França Junior, economist and content leader at Datagro Grãos. 

Total revenue from Brazilian exports in 2023 reached US$339,673 billion, growth of just 1,7% compared to the previous record, of US$334,136 billion, recorded in 2022. With this, the sector contributed with 19,8%, proportion higher than the record of 18,2% in 2022, easily surpassing the 16,2% average participation rate over the last 10 years. 

Projections for 2024 are strongly reduced 

In terms of volume, Datagro Grãos estimates external exits from the Brazilian soybean complex at 114,900 million tons in 2024, 9,4% below 2023. Even so, if it were to materialize, it would be the second largest in history. There would be 88,800 million tons of soybeans (-12,8%); 24,000 million tons of bran (+6,1%) and 2,100 million tons of soybean oil (-10,6%). 

With regard to revenue, the consultancy's initial figures point to US$54,480 billion, which would represent a decline of 19,1% compared to 2023: US$41,736 billion of soybeans (-21,7%); US$ 10,560 billion of soybean meal (-8,2%); and US$ 2,184 billion from soybean oil (-14,5%). 

“This decline in revenue for 2024 also tends to result in a reduction in the share of exports from the soy sector in Brazil's overall exports, from 19,8% in 2023 to 17,0%. Despite being much lower, this new rate would still be much higher than the 16,2% average for the last 10 years, being the lowest since the 16,8% in 2020”, says França Junior.