Exports and exchange rates influence soybean and corn prices

This week's Grão Direto Expert Analysis highlights the main factors that impacted the soybean and corn markets. The advanced harvest in Paraná, record exports to China and the truce in the Black Sea influenced soybean prices, while corn was impacted by high domestic demand and expectations for the USDA report. With exchange rate fluctuations and possible changes in the ethanol blend in gasoline, the market remains attentive to upcoming movements and trends.

Soybean market behavior

2024/25 harvest production - with around 90% of soybeans already harvested in the state of Paraná, Deral (Department of Rural Economy) projected an increase of almost 15% in the state's production, compared to the previous year.

Black Sea - A truce mediated by the United States between Russia and Ukraine aimed at halting attacks in the Black Sea, a very important channel for the flow of grain, was announced last week, but without much certainty.

Exports - with high and consistent demands, Brazil came even closer to setting record numbers for soybean exports to China in the first quarter of 2025.

In Chicago, the May 2025 soybean contract closed at US$10,22 per bushel, up 1,19% on the week. The March 2026 contract also rose, closing at US$10,39 per bushel (+1,56%). The dollar appreciated 0,7%, closing the week at R$5,76. In the physical market, soybeans rose in some markets, in line with the more favorable external scenario and the slight exchange rate recovery.

What to expect from the market?

China's demand - As of March 20, China had already shipped approximately 15,3 million tons of Brazilian soybeans. Considering an average transit and unloading time of 60 to 70 days, Chinese stocks — which were at historically low levels — have begun to be replenished. However, as the crushing pace in China is still below normal, premiums remain sustained. The expectation is that, starting in the second half of April, the increase in the volume of soybeans unloaded will begin to put downward pressure on prices at the origin.

Argentina - The volume of soybeans sold by Argentine producers is at its lowest level in the last ten years. This delay in sales has been driven by expectations of possible tax exemptions and an improvement in the exchange rate. With Argentine supply more limited at the moment, demand for Brazilian crushers has been growing, since Argentina is traditionally the largest soybean processor in the world.

Exchange - The dollar has been weakening globally, as markets begin to price in the trade war initiated by former President Donald Trump, which will not be temporary. On April 2, Trump is expected to announce his plan to impose tariffs on imported products, and there is a possibility that Brazil will be included in the list of affected countries. This decision is expected to be made over the next week, which could impact the exchange rate and, consequently, the formation of soybean prices in Brazil.

Taking into account the previous information, we may have a positive week for soybeans at the beginning of the month, maintaining the trend of last week, with more evident downward pressures only from the second half of the month.

Corn market behavior

Crop development - progress in the summer corn harvest, together with the planting of second-crop corn with good prospects for rain, led to optimism last week, putting pressure on stock market prices.

physical market - in the physical market, prices were firmer with high demand, mainly from farmers, being less impacted than B3 prices.

USDA Report - the week was marked by some indecisions while waiting for the planting intention report, scheduled for this week.

In Chicago, corn closed the week at US$4,53 per bushel, down 2,16%. In Brazil, on the B3, the corn contract for May 2025 also fell, closing at R$77,19 per bag (-3,09%). In the physical market, corn prices remain low, pressured by the depreciation in the futures markets, although with less significant declines. In fact, some markets showed appreciation due to demand.

What to expect from the market? 

Internal market - the domestic market remains buoyant, with physical prices supported by firm demand. Last week, the Minister of Mines and Energy stated during the E30 that the ethanol blend in gasoline, currently at 27%, will be increased to 30%. This change should intensify demand for corn in the short term, especially for ethanol production, which could exacerbate the tightness in available supply and keep prices sustained in the coming weeks.

Climate conditions - The main climate models indicate a neutral condition between the El Niño and La Niña phenomena. This scenario, under current conditions, tends to favor the development of the second corn crop, with milder temperatures expected in the Central-West and well-distributed rainfall in the main producing regions. The continuity of this climate pattern will be essential to guarantee productivity and avoid crop losses.

USDA Report 

The USDA planting intentions report, scheduled for March 31, should indicate an increase in the corn area in the US, with estimates of 03% above last year. This expectation is already generating downward pressure on prices. If confirmed, it could keep the market under pressure this week. On the other hand, an area below expectations could reverse the movement and sustain prices in the short term. The report is an important indicator for commercial decisions by producers and buyers.

After continuous declines, we may have a week of price recovery, or at least stability, following the factors presented previously, depending mainly on the USDA report.