Estimates for grain production in São Paulo grow

Estimates for grain production in São Paulo were high, according to the 5th Survey of the 2021/22 Harvest, carried out by the National Supply Company (Conab) and consolidated by the Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of the State of São Paulo (FAESP). In the 4th survey, there was an increase of 0,75% in the projection, which went from 10,27 million tons to 10,35 million tons. Comparing to the last harvest, the estimate rose from 8,65 million to 10,3 .19,7 million tons, an increase of XNUMX%.

The cultivated area should be 4,2% higher than last harvest and the more favorable climate tends to provide a 14,87% gain in productivity, estimated at 4.140,14 kg/ha in this cycle.

“Although we doubt whether this survey has already captured the full impact of the drought in the western region of the state, the results show that agriculture in São Paulo remains solid. Regardless of the general economic situation, the sector continues to invest, generating income and jobs”, says the president of FAESP, Fábio de Salles Meirelles.

Good news is that the production of safrinha corn, the crop most affected by the adverse weather events of the past harvest, signals recovery through farmers' planting intentions. 2,75 million tons are estimated for this cycle, an increase of 92,7%. The planted area has an estimated growth of 4%, so the positive results result from the gain in productivity, estimated at 85,3%, equivalent to 4.818kg/ha.

There was also a 1,35% increase in soybean forecasts, compared to the 4th survey. The projection rose to 4,56 million tons, an increase of 6% in relation to the volume harvested in the last harvest.

For rice, the forecast increased slightly by 0,5% and 39,8 thousand tons are now expected, a result equivalent to the previous cycle. For other products, projections were maintained.

Brazil

The 5th 2021/22 Harvest Survey carried out throughout Brazil showed a drop in relation to the previous estimate, due to the impacts of water scarcity in the southern regions of the country and central-south of Mato Grosso, mainly on corn and soybean crops.

Compared to the previous survey, there was a 5,7% reduction in the estimate for grain production. Still, the forecast of 268,2 million tons for the 2021/22 harvest is 5% above the volume harvested last season.

In relation to the previous survey, there was a drop in estimates for the cultivation of peanuts, beans and corn first harvests and for rice and soybeans. The forecast for peanuts is a production of 690,8 thousand tons (+17,4% compared to the results of the previous cycle); for beans, 935,5 thousand tons (-4,2%); for corn, 24,4 million tons (-1,2%); for rice, 10,5 million tons (-10,1%); and for soybeans, 125,47 million tons (-9,2%).

The positive highlight was cotton and second-crop crops, beans and corn. Cottonseed production is estimated at 3,95 million tons, resulting in an increase of 14,8% compared to the previous harvest.

For second-crop beans, 1,3 million tons (+17,1%) are estimated and, for second-crop corn, the harvest projection is 86,0 million tons (+41,7%), signaling recovery in relation to the low results of the 2020/21 harvest, which were caused by climate impacts. It should be noted, however, that the off-season corn crop is being planted and the yield will depend on the behavior of the climate during its cycle.