Estimate points to record for 2nd harvest corn with production exceeding 87 million tons

Corn producers are expected to harvest 87,4 million tons in the second harvest of the cereal in the 2021/22 season, as shown in the 11th Grain Harvest Survey released this Thursday (11/08) by the National Supply Company (Conab) . With the good performance of the crops, the Company's estimate for total grain production for this season is 271,4 million tons, an increase of 6,2% to that harvested in 2020/21, that is, 15,9 million tons. tons.

The harvest of second crop corn continues to advance and exceeds 79% of the planted area, as indicated by the Harvest Progress published by the state-owned company this week. If confirmed, the estimated volume for the second corn harvest, this value represents the highest production recorded in the historical series. The number already considers the reduction in productivity, when compared to the previous survey, due to the impact of the lack of rain and pest attacks in important producing regions, such as Paraná. In relation to the previous cycle, the increase in production reaches 44%.

Another prominent crop is cotton. Fiber harvesting is underway under favorable weather conditions, with work carried out on more than 67% of the cultivated area and completion estimated for September. If, on the one hand, the climate affected productivity in some crops due to water stress, on the other hand, the dry weather observed in most producing regions positively influenced the quality of the final product. According to the Conab survey, the expectation is for a harvest of 2,74 million tons of cotton lint, 16% higher than the last harvest.

For beans, the second harvest is practically finished, with only a few plots remaining that should be harvested in the first half of August. Even with the climate fluctuations recorded during the cycle, production should reach around 1,36 million tons, representing an increase of 19,5% compared to the previous season. Regarding the third legume harvest, the Company's technicians verified that the crops have already been implemented, continuing in full cycle evolution. There was a reduction in the planted area compared to 2020/21, especially due to the great competition with the cultivation of corn and wheat, cereals that expanded their areas of coverage in this cycle. Even so, total grain production will be close to 3 million tons.

Among winter products, crop sowing was completed in July. For wheat, the main sown product, a record production of 9,2 million tons is estimated. This expected increase in production of 19,3% is a reflection of a larger planted area, with significant growth in Rio Grande do Sul – reaching 18% in the state of Rio Grande do Sul compared to the last harvest –, combined with an expected increase in productivity .

1st harvest products, soybean and rice crops have an estimated production of 124 million tons and 10,8 million tons, respectively. The result of the oilseed is a reflection of the severe drought that occurred at the end of 2021 in the south of the country and in part of Mato Grosso do Sul. The climate also influenced the productivity of rice, which, combined with a smaller planted area, had the harvest reduced by 8,4% compared to the last harvest. In the case of 1st harvest corn, production remained practically stable, with a volume close to 25 million tons.

Market

In this survey, the highlight is wheat, which had the 2021/2022 harvest (commercial year from August 2021 to July 2022) closed with final stocks totaling 722,6 thousand tons. Other adjustments were made to the export and import data closed last month, estimated at around 6 million tons and 3 million tons, respectively. For the upcoming harvest, the expectation is that the stock will end at 1,6 million tons.

Conab also changed the soybean supply framework. The final stocks of the oilseed were adjusted to 7,66 million tons, as indicated by the stock survey released by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). This increase in final stocks for the 2020/21 harvest also led to expectations of a larger carryover stock for the 2021/22 harvest, rising from 4,65 million tons to 5,98 million tons. An increase in soybean oil exports to 2,1 million tons was also estimated, as a result of strong sales to the foreign market between January and July this year, high international prices and positive crushing margins.

For corn, there was a small adjustment in domestic consumption in relation to the last survey released. Another highlight refers to the 80,2% increase in grain exports, with an estimate that 37,5 million tons are expected to leave the country via ports. Final stocks also tend to increase by 25,3% compared to the previous harvest, which indicates the recovery of domestic cereal availability at the end of the current harvest year.

With low availability of product stocks, cotton exports showed a slow pace in July this year, when 19,68 thousand tons of Brazilian product were shipped, a volume 68,63% lower than the month of June and 66,2% lower than the same period last year. The situation should only change in October, when the new harvest will be available for sale. As for rice and beans, the numbers in the supply table did not show significant changes in this survey.