Estimate of the trajectory of the locust cloud until 06/08

GDISPEN researchers have presented simulations and estimates of the trajectory of locust clouds, of the species Schistocerca cancellata, who have been traveling through Paraguay and Argentina since May. On the laboratory page you will find the Details about the model used and about the swarm.

Current Locust Cloud Locations

To date, 4 locust clouds have been located in South America:

For a better visualization of the approximate location of clouds, a map of the region.

Wind and temperature field data

Since cloud displacements are determined in 80% of cases by wind direction and temperatures above 20°C favor insect flight, the wind fields and temperature fields at 850hPa and the 2m, for the next few days. The WRF model was used to make the forecast, starting on 2/8 at 12UTC until 6/8 at 12UTC (in local time, 9am on 2/8 until 9am on 6/ 8). 

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An estimate of the trajectory of swarms 2, 3 and 4 is presented below. The wind field forecast data from the WRF model is used, initialized on 2/8 at 12UTC. This species can travel up to 150 km/day, but since the beginning of this research it has been traveling between approximately 40 and 80 km/day. This past weekend, clouds moved up to 130 km/day.

The estimate of 4 possible trajectories is presented: in a first scenario, it is assumed that the cloud travels approximately 30 km/day; in a second scenario, 60 km/day, in a third scenario, 100 km/day and in a fourth scenario 150 km/day. The complete trajectories are described in the following figures (Scene 1: red circles; Scene 2: blue circles,  Scene 3: pink circles, Scene 4: black circles).

  

Scenario 1: Cloud moves approximately 30 km/day 

Cloud 2: If this prediction is confirmed, on Thursday 06/8, it is estimated that the cloud will be located east of the city of Gregoria Pérez de Denis, in the province of Santa Fé in Argentina, around 480 km (as the crow flies) from the city of Uruguaiana in RS.

Cloud 3: If this prediction is confirmed, on Thursday 06/8, it is estimated that the cloud will be located west of the city of Otumpa, remaining in the province of Santiago del Estero in Argentina, around 540 km (as the crow flies) from city ​​of Uruguaiana in RS.

Cloud 4: If this prediction is confirmed, on Thursday 06/8, it is estimated that the cloud will be located south of the city of Lagunita Nueva Probacion, remaining in the province of Salta in Argentina, around 850 km (as the crow flies) from city ​​of São Borja in RS.

 Scenario 2: Cloud moves approximately 60 km/day 

Cloud 2: If this forecast is confirmed, on Thursday 06/8, it is estimated that the cloud could reach the city of Logrono, in the province of Santa Fé in Argentina. The point is approximately 400 km (in a straight line) from the city of Barra do Quaraí in RS.

Cloud 3: If this prediction is confirmed, on Thursday 06/8, it is estimated that the cloud will be located near the city of Cuatro Bocas, in the province of Santiago del Estero in Argentina. The point is approximately 460 km (as the crow flies) from the city of Barra do Quaraí in RS.

Cloud 4: If this forecast is confirmed, on Thursday 06/8, it is estimated that the cloud could reach the region close to the city of Taco Pozo, on the border of the provinces of Salta, Santiago del Estero and Chaco in Argentina. The point is approximately 800 km (as the crow flies) from the city of São Borja in RS.

Scenario 3: Cloud moves approximately 100 km/day 

Cloud 2: If this forecast is confirmed, on Thursday 06/8, it is estimated that the cloud will be located near the city of Monigotes, in the province of Santa Fé in Argentina. The point is approximately 380 km (as the crow flies) from the city of Barra do Quaraí in RS.

Cloud 3: If this forecast is confirmed, on Thursday 06/8, it is estimated that the cloud could reach the region close to the city of Ceres, in the province of Santa Fé in Argentina. The point is approximately 430 km (in a straight line) from the city of Barra do Quaraí in RS.

Cloud 4: If this forecast is confirmed, on Thursday 06/8, it is estimated that the cloud could reach the region close to the city of Bandera Bajada, in the province of Santiago del Estero in Argentina. The point is approximately 700 km (in a straight line) from the city of Uruguaiana in RS.

Scenario 4: Cloud moves approximately 150 km/day 

Cloud 2: If this forecast is confirmed, on Thursday 06/8, it is estimated that the cloud could reach the region close to the city of Paraná, in the province of Entre Ríos in Argentina. The point is approximately 330 km (as the crow flies) from the city of Barra Quaraí in RS.

Cloud 3: If this forecast is confirmed, on Thursday 06/8, it is estimated that the cloud could reach the region close to the city of Sarmiento, in the province of Santa Fé in Argentina. The point is approximately 350 km (in a straight line) from the city of Barra Quaraí in RS.

Cloud 4: If this forecast is confirmed, on Thursday 06/8, it is estimated that the cloud could reach the region close to the city of Medellín, in the province of Santiago del Estero in Argentina. The point is approximately 620 km (in a straight line) from the city of Barra Quaraí in RS.

New estimates will be presented whenever a new location of the swarm is released by SENASA, and weather conditions are favorable for the movement of the swarms.

It is important to remember that these simulations come from a mathematical model, and as such are an approximation of reality, and therefore have inherent errors. Furthermore, the trajectory can be altered according to changes due to the movement of the species, in addition to climatological changes such as rain and cold.

This study has a purely academic and scientific objective, showing the great applicability of mathematical modeling in real problems. The discussions, opinions, ideas and publications generated from the results of the model used are those of the respective authors, and do not necessarily represent those of the institutions to which they belong.

The GDISPEN researchers involved in this research are doctors Fernanda Tumelero, Viliam Cardoso da Silveira, Guilherme Jahnecke Weymar, Daniela Buske, Régis Sperotto de Quadros, Glênio Aguiar Gonçalves, Igor da Cunha Furtado, Alexandre Sacco Athayde and Luciana Rossato Piovesan.