Datagro Grãos, in its eighth survey on the 2023/24 soybean harvest in Brazil, confirms the 17th consecutive year of increase in the area sown with the oilseed, despite the estimate having been reduced to 45,520 million hectares, compared to a previous projection of 45,530 million ha, which represents an increase of 1,9% compared to the 2022/23 season. The planting intention, released in July last year, indicated 45,724 million hectares – just 204 thousand hectares different from the current number.
“This has been a totally different year for Brazilian soybeans, with producers still encouraged to cultivate, but without the strength of previous years. Stimulus factors predominated, but due to the drop in prices and expectations of tighter margins, progress in planting was limited”, explains Flávio Roberto de França Junior, economist and content leader at Datagro Grãos.
Despite the positive technological standard, the harvest ends with severe losses in production, assesses the consultancy. However, since the previous month, the progress of the harvest showed slightly better results, leading Datagro Grãos to revise its productivity expectation upwards, from 3.214 kg/ha projected in March, to 3.251 kg/ha – still, 9,7. 3.602% lower than the 2022 kg/ha of the 23/XNUMX season record. “And there are still possible new revisions, as the harvest comes to an end”, comments França Junior.
As a result, production expectations went from 146,336 million tons to 147,963 million tons. If confirmed, this volume would be 8,0% below the record harvest harvested in 2022/23, of 160,834 million tons – still, the second largest in history.
The April survey by Datagro Grãos ratified the retraction in the area sown with summer corn. The projection was even raised from 4,032 to 4,052 million ha – 2,652 million ha in the Center-South and 1,400 million ha in the North/Northeast –, 200 thousand ha less than indicated in the planting intention, which would represent a decline of 10,1% compared to the previous season.
Despite the good technological level, the partially irregular weather pattern led to the production potential of the 1st corn crop being reduced from 24,040 million tons reported last month, to 23,991 million tons – 18,091 million tons in the Center-South and 5,900 million tons from the North/Northeast – 14,0% lower than the damaged harvest harvested in 2023, of 27,864 million tons.
For the 2024 winter harvest, the downward trend in the area has practically continued since March. “Combining poor signaling for profit margins, with problems in planting soybeans”, highlights França Junior. In total Brazil, the projection is 17,217 million ha, 7,5% below the 18,620 million ha in 2023 – 14,347 million ha in the Center-South and 2,870 million ha in the North/Northeast.
Considering the results obtained with the progress of the harvest and the good behavior of the weather in the central region in the first 20 days of April, the production potential of the 2nd harvest was adjusted, from 90,877 to 91,862 million tons, 15,4% below the 108,595 mi t of the 2023 harvest – 82,862 mi t from the Center-South and 9,000 mi t from the North/Northeast.
In total for the two harvests, Brazil has an area forecast for 2023/24 of 21,269 million ha, 8,0% below the 23,126 million ha in 2023, and potential production now of 115,853 million t, 15,1% lower to the 2022/23 harvest, when 136,459 million tons were harvested.
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