Epagri confirms positive estimates for the 2024-25 winter harvest in Santa Catarina

Data from the Safras Project projects greater productivity of wheat, garlic and onions

20.08.2024 | 15:56 (UTC -3)
Marcionize Elis Bavaresco
Photo: Aires Mariga
Photo: Aires Mariga

The main crops for the 2024/2025 winter harvest are already in the field in Santa Catarina and crop conditions are considered good. According to data from the harvest monitoring project developed by the Center for Socioeconomics and Agricultural Planning (Epagri/Cepa), the entire area planned for the wheat and garlic harvest has already been planted. In the case of onions, around 59% of the estimated planting area had been implemented by the beginning of this month. The information was released through the August Agricultural Bulletin and is also available on the Observatório Agro Catarinense and Infoagro websites.  

Therefore, the estimate of higher productivity in this winter harvest is maintained for the three crops mentioned. In the 2023/2024 harvest, there was a significant drop in production due to the excess rain recorded in Santa Catarina, especially in October and November. The Agricultural Bulletin is a monthly publication by Epagri/Cepa that brings together current information on harvests and markets for the State's main agricultural products.

Wheat

With the end of wheat sowing, the area estimate was updated. There was a 12,43% reduction in the planted area compared to that recorded in the previous harvest. The state average productivity is estimated at just under 3,6 kilos per hectare, which represents an increase of 60,69% compared to the 2023/2024 harvest. As a result, production should grow by around 40,72%. The condition of crops is considered good in 97% of the areas evaluated and average in the other 3%.

According to the Socioeconomics and Rural Development analyst at Epagri/Cepa, João Alves, in July, the average prices received by wheat producers in Santa Catarina were practically stable. In annual variation, in nominal terms, the average price received in July 2024 was 2,2% lower than that recorded in July 2023. When comparing the average monthly price in July with those practiced in the first ten days of August, it is possible to notice a decline of 0,48% in the value of a 60kg bag.

Garlic

Photo: Aires Mariga
Photo: Aires Mariga

The Epagri/Cepa survey shows that approximately 656 hectares of garlic were planted in the 2024/2025 harvest, an area approximately 34% smaller than that of the previous harvest. The good news is that, so far, the condition of the crops is considered good. According to the Socioeconomics and Rural Development analyst at Epagri/Cepa, Jurandi Gugel, the Santa Catarina 2023/2024 garlic harvest has already been sold. At the end of June, the average price paid to the producer for garlic categories 4-5 was R$14,00 per kilo, a 30% reduction compared to the month of May. 

Regarding wholesale prices, garlic prices saw a reduction influenced by the start of commercialization of production in the center of the country. At Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (Ceagesp), class 5 garlic was sold at R$23,79 per kilo, a reduction of 14,36% compared to the beginning of June. Class 6 garlic started the month at R$26,00 per kilo, a reduction of 13,13%, and class 7 garlic at R$28,51 per kilo, a reduction of 13,07% compared to the previous month.

In the first half of 2024, garlic imports were 105,76 thousand tons, which is 29,4% higher than that recorded in the same period last year.

Onion

The estimate, for the 2024/2025 harvest, is that the area planted with onions will exceed 17,37 thousand hectares in Santa Catarina. This represents a reduction of almost 6% compared to the previous harvest. Approximately 59% of this area has already been planted and crop conditions are considered good. In July, the average price received by producers in Santa Catarina and wholesale onion prices decreased compared to the previous month. According to Jurandi, this was due to the increase in domestic supply of the vegetable with the intensification of commercialization of the product from the center of the country.

The average price paid to producers in Santa Catarina per kilo of onion, in July, was R$36,00 per 20-kilo bag, a 40% reduction compared to the month of June. At Ceagesp, the month of July started with the price at R$5,69 per kilo for the average national onion – a reduction of 17,41% compared to the price at the beginning of June, when it was R$6,89 per kilo. Onion imports, in the first half of 2024, were more than 252 thousand tons, the highest volume in recent years.

Apple

The apple market in Santa Catarina and Brazil, in the first half of 2024, showed variations in prices and volumes sold, influenced by factors such as reduced supply and adverse weather conditions. In the wholesale market in Santa Catarina, between June and July 2024, there was a slight devaluation in the price of apples, but a significant increase compared to July 2023. Gala and Fuji apples had price fluctuations, with the first appreciating more than the second. 

In the national market, the price of apples from Santa Catarina also fluctuated, with a recent devaluation, but an increase compared to the previous year. Apple imports, mainly from Chile, increased due to lower domestic production. Production in Santa Catarina, in the 2023/24 harvest, had an estimated reduction of 23,7% compared to the previous one, as a result of lower productivity and harvested area, especially for the Fuji and Gala varieties.

Rice

The 2023/24 harvest is closed. Paddy rice prices, in July, continued the downward trend observed since June. The increase in domestic supply, given the conclusion of the harvest in Santa Catarina and the consequent commercialization of the grain, explains the behavior of prices in the State. In relation to international rice trade, from January to July 2024, Santa Catarina companies earned US$1,94 million from exports. 

On the other hand, the value of imports from Santa Catarina, in the same period, was 76,04% higher than that observed in the same period in 2023. Among the explanations for this behavior, the increase in domestic demand and competitive international prices stand out. The month of July was also marked by the arrival of rice purchased from Thailand by the industry. The Asian country was responsible for 11% of the value imported in the first half of 2024 by state companies. Among the reasons that favored this commercialization is the zero tax for countries outside Mercosur. 

Bean

The current period is the bean off-season. In July, the average price received by Santa Catarina's carioca bean producers increased by 7,84% compared to the previous month (from R$152,69 to R$164,66 per 60kg bag). As for black beans, the average price received by producers increased by 8,93% compared to June (from R$202,27 to R$220,33 per 60kg bag). When comparing the average monthly prices in July with those practiced in the first 10 days of August, it is possible to notice a decline of 1,24% in the price of black beans and 4,41% in the price of carioca beans.

In the wholesale market, the quality of the carioca beans that have been sold in São Paulo has limited the number of negotiations. During this off-season, the national market is supplied with products from Minas Gerais and Paraná, states that had their harvests affected by adverse weather. With the end of the second black bean harvest in the south of the country, the market is being served by stocks from Paraná and, eventually, from Argentina. Due to the significant volume harvested in the second harvest, imports are expected to fall significantly. 

Corn

The 2023/24 harvest closure report confirms previous estimates of a reduction in the cultivation area of ​​7,9% and in productivity by 18,5%, which led to a reduction in total harvest production by 24,6%. In absolute terms, this represents 600 thousand tons less compared to the previous harvest. For the 2024/25 harvest, there is an indication of a further reduction in planted area. This information will be disclosed in the next bulletin.  

In July, the corn market showed a predominance of downward factors, mainly due to the greater supply of the second harvest in Brazil. In the first half of August, prices showed signs of reaction, with upward movements. The volume of exports could lead to an upward movement in prices throughout the second half of the year.

Soybean

Total production for the 2023/24 harvest, in Santa Catarina, was 2,75 million tons. In relation to the previous harvest, the final estimate pointed to an 8,2% reduction in production due to weather events. These problems especially affected the second harvest. However, with the increase in the area of ​​the first harvest, soybean production did not have a more significant reduction. 

Regarding the market, after soybean prices showed successive increases since the beginning of the year, in July they fell. The average monthly amount received by Santa Catarina producers in the month was R$125,62 per bag, a reduction of 0,7% compared to June. The August USDA report, which projected higher production in the current US harvest, put pressure on prices.

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