El Niño: Inmet points out the weakening of the climate phenomenon

The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) released new data on monitoring, forecasts and the possible impacts of El Niño in Brazil in 2024. Report No. 5 indicates that although El Niño is currently classified as strong, the intensity of the phenomenon is expected to change moderate to weak in the coming months, with the possibility of La Niña forming in the second half. 

The document is produced and updated monthly to provide information about the phenomenon and, thus, support federal and state bodies, in addition to contributing to government decision-making regarding the country.

TSM Predictions

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) forecasts for the Equatorial Pacific Ocean region, produced by global climate models, indicate a high probability (98%) that El Niño conditions will continue to manifest in the coming months and persist until, at least April 2024. However, subsequently, most climate models point to a weakening of the phenomenon, varying from moderate to weak intensity, with Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in the Central Pacific region below 1,4ºC.

According to extended projections from IRI (International Research Institute for Climate and Society), Sea Surface Temperature anomalies will reach neutrality in the AMJ quarter (April, May and June/2024), with a 66% probability. From the second half of 2024 onwards, there is a possibility of the formation of the La Niña phenomenon, with a probability greater than 50%.

Soil water and river flows

In relation to the prediction of water storage in the soil, the rains observed in the months of December/23 and January/24 contributed to the increase in soil moisture levels in a large part of Brazil, mainly in the south of the North Region, as well as in areas of the central region of the country. The forecast of water storage in the soil for the month of February/24 indicates a maintenance of moisture in the soil, while in a large part of the South Region, the forecast indicates high levels of humidity.

There is no expectation of an increase in water levels in the soil for the month of February/24 in the central and eastern parts of the Northeast Region, northwest of the North Region and north of the Southeast Region.