El Niño influences climate forecast for the next three months

INMET's Agroclimatological Bulletin, published today, states that El Niño conditions will remain throughout the winter. There is a chance that the phenomenon will last until spring (probability greater than 90%). Its intensity will vary between moderate and strong. These conclusions are based on information from the APEC Climate Center (APCC), a research center based in South Korea.

For the next three months, the forecast by region is as follows...

• North region: predominance of rainfall below the climatological average in a large part of the region. In Amapá and northern Roraima, the forecast is for rainfall close to and slightly above average during the quarter. The water balance forecast for the coming months indicates that the highest levels of water in the soil will be concentrated in the extreme north of the region, mainly in areas of the northwest of Amazonas and in Roraima, with values ​​above 90%. In other areas, there is a forecast of a reduction in storage, reaching values ​​below 10% in areas of southern Pará, Rondônia and Tocantins in August and September.

• Northeast Region: below-average rainfall in almost the entire region, but mainly in the northwest of Maranhão and the east of the States of Paraíba and Pernambuco. In the northeastern interior, rainfall should be close to and slightly above average. In areas of Matopina and the Northeastern Semiarid region, the forecast reduction in rainfall could negatively affect water levels in the soil in all months, reaching values ​​below 10%. In areas on the east coast of the region, including areas of Sealba, the forecast indicates maintenance of soil humidity for much of the quarter, mainly in the months of July and August.

• Midwest region: precipitation trend slightly below the historical average. In a large part of the region, with the exception of areas in the south of Mato Grosso do Sul, the model indicates a reduction in water storage, reaching values ​​below 30% in practically the entire quarter. This condition could affect second-crop and winter agricultural crops that are at sensitive phenological stages or under water deficiency, mainly in areas of Goiás and northern Mato Grosso.

• Southeast region: rainfall below the historical average across the region. However, the occurrence of rain near the southern coast of the region cannot be ruled out due to the possible advances of frontal systems. The reduction in rainfall could negatively affect water levels in the soil, causing impacts to second-crop and winter crops. In areas south of São Paulo, the forecast indicates maintenance of water levels in the soil, with values ​​greater than 50% in the three months.

• South region: predominance of rainfall close to and above the climatological average in the coming months in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. In Paraná, the forecast is for rainfall below the climatological average. The forecast of rainfall within or above average in most areas, associated with the decrease in temperatures during winter, could contribute to maintaining water levels in the soil, with values ​​above 80%, and benefit winter crops that are in reproductive development.