Drought expected to ease in much of the summer harvest area

After weeks of drought, the first signs of change are beginning to emerge in the fields. Climate models analyzed by EarthDaily, a company that uses remote sensing technology to monitor agricultural areas in real time, indicate a recovery in soil moisture in key summer harvest regions, such as Mato Grosso, Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and southern Paraná, which are expected to receive more significant rainfall in the coming days.

According to projections, rainfall is expected to be concentrated in parts of Mato Grosso, Goiás, Minas Gerais, and São Paulo, with above-average amounts in the South. For Mato Grosso do Sul, however, both models indicate limited rainfall.

Temperatures tend to remain near or slightly below average in most producing regions, which can help reduce moisture loss and create more stable conditions for crop development. "Between October 8th and 15th, the trend of increasing soil moisture signals a positive sign for the start of the summer harvest, marking the gradual transition from a drought scenario to more balanced moisture conditions, especially in the central areas of the country," comments Felippe Reis, crop analyst at EarthDaily.

Based on EarthDaily's observations over the past ten days, accumulated rainfall was below average across most of the country, with the exception of some areas in the South and Northeast. In the South, rainfall volumes were more significant, maintaining satisfactory water levels and favoring the development of summer crops.

In contrast, the intense heat in the Central-West and Southeast regions resulted in increased evapotranspiration, intensifying the drought and reducing soil moisture.

Despite this, in Mato Grosso, the main soybean-producing state, conditions are not yet cause for concern. Moisture levels remain below average, but similar to those observed in the previous cycle, which had good production performance. The forecast points to increased soil moisture, creating a favorable environment for continued planting.

In Goiás, the European ECMWF model also indicates an increase in humidity in the short term, although levels remain among the lowest in the last ten years, which should keep the sowing pace slow.

In Mato Grosso do Sul, the expectation is for more consistent improvement in the coming weeks, favoring the start of the summer crop cycle.

In Paraná, the scenario is divided: the North of the state continues to experience very low precipitation levels - the lowest in the last five years - while the South presents more balanced conditions, with satisfactory humidity that should continue in the short term.