Drought and heat threaten soybean planting in the Midwest

The drop in soil moisture, high temperatures and rainfall below the average of the last 15 years in practically all states will hinder the start of soybean planting from the second half of September, when the sanitary break ends in some regions, assesses EarthDaily Agro, a remote sensing company that uses satellite images.

Both the ECMWF (European model) and the GFS (American model) predict rainfall volumes between 60% and 80% below average in the country between September 05 and 15, increasing water stress on crops, as well as the risk of fires. High temperatures are occurring in much of the Central-West, Southeast and part of the South. In Mato Grosso do Sul, average temperatures may be up to 10°C above normal, according to the GFS. “Producers can wait a little longer to start planting soybeans,” says Felippe Reis, crop analyst at EarthDaily Agro.

Wheat

Regarding soil moisture over the next ten days, the ECMWF predicts unfavorable conditions for wheat development, especially in Paraná. In August, the country's largest wheat producer (with 44% of the harvest) recorded 37,5 millimeters of rainfall, less than half of what was expected for the month. The estimated productivity for the Paraná harvest is 45,1 bags per hectare, compared to 46,2 bags per hectare in the last season.

In Santa Catarina, since mid-August, humidity levels have been more similar to those seen in 2012, when drought in August and September resulted in significant crop failure. Last week, the drought caused EarthDaily Agro to reduce its productivity estimate for the state by 4%, dropping to 52,7 bags per hectare (53,8 bags per hectare in the previous harvest). There is a possibility of further reductions in the short term.

Only in Rio Grande do Sul there was more rain, with accumulated precipitation in the last 10 days ranging from 7 to 40 millimeters. Wheat productivity is estimated at 56,4 bags per hectare (44,7 bags per hectare in the previous harvest)

Sugar cane

In the macro-region of Ribeirão Preto, drought and high temperatures are forecast for the next two weeks, increasing the risk of fires in sugarcane crops. The heat may exceed 40°C (GFS) at the end of the first half of September.