Drought affects second harvest corn areas, points out EarthDaily Agro

Across the Central-West, Southeast and much of Paraná, the volume of rain was between 40% and 80% below average in the last two weeks. The lower volume than normal at this time is not yet a reason for concern in second-crop corn producing regions, but monitoring by the European model (ECMWF) shows drought for most of the country in the coming days, according to data collected by EarthDaily Agro, remote sensing company using satellite images.

“The second harvest corn cycle is still in its infancy and the plants’ demand for water is low at this stage, but we already know that more rain will be needed. For the next few weeks, climate models are divergent: while the European model (ECMWF) shows drought for most of the country, the American model (GFS) indicates the occurrence of rain in some regions. So, if the drought trend extends until the end of March, there is a possibility of affecting the productive potential of corn in the second harvest”, explains Felippe Reis, crop analyst at EarthDaily Agro.

The exception is Rio Grande do Sul, where rainfall volumes remain 50 millimeters or more above average, favoring the development of summer crops. The vegetation index (NDVI) is currently at the highest level compared to the last four seasons. Furthermore, soil moisture should remain above average in the short term, a favorable scenario for summer crops.

In Paraná, more than 80% of second-crop corn was sown, but in the northern region the NDVI still does not indicate clear emergence of plants and soil moisture is below average. In the south of the state, the NDVI shows good dynamics at the beginning of the cycle and soil humidity is at a good level in the region, which is favorable to the development of crops and indicates that the second harvest corn cycle is more advanced in comparison. with the north of the state.

In the Center-West, Mato Grosso also presents differences in the development of second-crop corn crops. In the Central-North region of the state, soil moisture should be at its lowest level compared to the last three years. However, the NDVI shows an earlier start to the cycle compared to previous seasons, so corn crops will have more time to take advantage of the end of the rainy season. In the southern region of the state, the European model (ECMWF) predicts that soil moisture will increase slightly in the short term.

In Mato Grosso do Sul, soil moisture should remain low according to data from (ECMWF). Soil moisture should remain below average (dashed line), but should increase gradually in the short term. The scenario points to similarity with the year 2022, a year in which productivity was good.

For Goiás, the European model (ECMWF) points to a significant increase in soil humidity in the coming days, which will be favorable for the development of crops. Both the (GFS) and (ECMWF) indicate high precipitation for the next few days in the second harvest corn producing areas.