Drop in IPCF in September indicates favorable moment for purchasing fertilizers

The Fertilizer Purchasing Power Index (IPCF) for September 2024 closed at 1.05, falling 5% compared to August, when the index was at 1.11. The moment is considered favorable for purchasing the input, since the lower the indicator, the better the exchange rate for the rural producer.

During the period, there was an average increase in commodities of approximately 1.1% compared to the previous month. This increase was led by soybeans, with an increase of approximately 4% and a small increase in the price of cotton of 0.2%. Corn, on the other hand, fell by 4.8% and sugarcane fell by 0.4%.

On the fertilizer side, there was a decline of approximately 1%. The decline was led by simple superphosphate (SSP), with a reduction of 3,54%, followed by potassium chloride (KCl) with a drop of 2.37%. The increase was due to urea, at 1%. Monoammonium phosphate (MAP) remained stable. The increase in interest rates in Brazil had some influence on the exchange rate. The US dollar closed the month with a drop of 0.2%, remaining stable compared to the previous month.

With the arrival of summer planting, the weather has been playing a greater role in the last month. La Niña is already active and its effects are already being felt, with delays in soybean planting, especially in the center-north of Brazil. Now, the market remains attentive to soybean planting in Brazil, which has already begun in some states, and to the weather, considering that, in some regions of the country, rainfall is scarce. Regarding the second corn crop, the sale of inputs is still behind historical figures due to the short planting window. It is important for producers to prepare in advance, avoiding potential logistical backlogs. Also worthy of attention are the uncertainties related to the possible escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which may somehow affect the global fertilizer market and, in the case of Brazil, the supply of fertilizers for the second corn crop.