Despite the increase in production, volume of Arabica coffee should remain below the projected trend for 2024, says Hedgepoint

Conab recently released its initial assessment of the 2024 coffee harvest (cycle 24/25), revealing significant numbers for the Arabica and Conilon varieties.

“Arabica production showed a positive trend, reaching 40,75 million bags, marking an increase of 4,74% and 1,84 million bags compared to the previous year. However, when considering the positive biennial years for arabica production, the volume is 6% below the expected trend for 2024, based on Conab's historical series (43,36 million bags). Despite this, it represents an improvement compared to the 23% drop below the trend seen in 2022. Yields for Arabica also registered an increase of 2%, reaching 26,7 bags/ha. However, this number is 10% below the trend for positive biennial years, signaling a difference between actual results and expectations”, observes Natália Gandolphi, the company's Coffee analyst. 

Furthermore, it only slightly exceeds the expected average for a positive biennial year based on data since 2010 (26,3 bags/ha) and is 17% below the historical record reported in 2020 by Conab (32,2 bags/ha) .

According to the analyst, “this suggests that, although performance is better than in 2023, it has not yet fully reached the potential expected for a year that would be a full harvest. Consequently, attention is turning to the 26/27 cycle to achieve a harvest comparable in yield and size to the record set in 2020.”

This adaptation is a consequence of the trend in production areas, which registered an increase of 3% compared to the previous year, reaching 1.526 thousand hectares, despite the ongoing challenges of irregular weather conditions.

As for conilon, despite its controversial perception in the market, Conab estimates a harvest of 17,3 million bags in 2024, an increase of 7% compared to 2023. The report highlights the harvest's exposure to variations in rainfall influenced by El Niño, with beneficial precipitation levels between May and August 2023 aiding post-harvest recovery.

“However, the lack of rain from September onwards resulted in water stress, affecting fruit set. Although this cycle did not suffer losses due to strong winds, high temperatures caused damage to leaves and roots, impacting photosynthetic potential. Despite these challenges, the initial outlook suggests a slight increase in the cultivated area and, in general, crops are developing well, with the exception of isolated cases of canker”, concludes Natália. 

The assessment of the 2024 coffee harvest by Conab highlights positive trends: Arabica production increased by 4,74% compared to the previous year, totaling 40,75 million bags, with a 2% increase in productivity. However, it is 6% below the expected trend for 2024. Despite the improvement since 2022, productivity remains 10% below expectations for the positive biennial years, directing attention to the 26/27 cycle in search of a record.

This adaptation is attributed to an increase of 3% per year in coffee producing areas. For conilon, estimated at 17,3 million bags with an increase of 7% compared to the previous year, the harvest faced variations in rainfall due to El Niño, impacting fruiting. Despite challenges such as damage caused by high temperatures, there is a slight increase in the cultivated area, with overall positive development of the crop, except for isolated cases of pests.