Datagro Grãos: commercialization of Brazilian soybeans in the 2023-24 harvest reaches 65,7% of estimated production

A survey carried out by Datagro Grãos shows that, by the end of May, Brazilian sales of the 2023/24 soybean harvest reached 65,7% of expected production, above the 58,6% observed in the same period last year, but still very far from the 87,5% of the 2019/20 harvest record and the 72,4% of the average of the last five years. 

The monthly increase was 13,7 percentage points, higher than the 9,4 pp recorded in the previous month, the 7,0 pp in 2023 and the 7,4 pp of the normal average. “The better pace of business confirmed our expectations, as the expected price appreciation actually happened. Also due to the need to leverage resources to purchase inputs for the 2024/25 harvest”, comments Flávio Roberto de França Junior, economist and content leader at Datagro Grãos. 

Considering the current production estimate at 147,6 million tons, Brazilian producers have negotiated, until the date analyzed, 97,0 million tons of soybeans. In the same period last year, this negotiated production volume was lower in relative and absolute terms, reaching 94,2 million tons. 

2024/25 harvest Negotiations for the 2024/25 harvest also showed better progress in the period analyzed. The Datagro Grãos survey points to 8,6% of the expected committed production, a monthly jump of 3,4 pp, above the 2,9 pp at a similar time last year and the 3,3 pp of the multi-annual average. However, the flow is below the 9,4% committed in 2023 and far from the 33,1% of the 2020/21 harvest record, in addition to below the 17,2% multi-annual average. According to the initial exercise carried out by the consultancy – the planting intention comes out in July –, the projection for the 2023/4 harvest is 160,5 million tons, which would represent a growth of 9% compared to the current season. 

Corn 

Negotiations for the 2023/24 summer corn harvest in the Center-South of Brazil also moved more quickly in May. The Datagro Grãos survey points to 40,4% of the expected committed production, a monthly jump of 11,0 pp, in line with the multi-annual average, above the 9,5 pp indicated in the previous survey and the 9,3 pp in a similar time last year. Therefore, sales are below the 49,2% committed at the same time in 2023 and far from the 63,0% normal average.  

“In absolute numbers, we have sales of 7,2 million tons, from a harvest of 17,8 million tons. At the same time in 2023, we had sales of 9,9 million tons”, comments França Junior.  

Commercialization of the region's 2024 winter harvest, estimated at 81,3 million tons, reached 31,7%, compared to 22,8% in the previous survey, 34,3% on the same date last year and a multi-annual average of 49,0 .XNUMX%.