Datagro estimates 2020/21 soybean harvest at 135,68 million tons and reduces corn projection

The 5th survey by DATAGRO Consulting for the 2020/21 Brazilian soybean harvest brings small adjustments to the production estimate. A harvest of 135,68 million tons is projected, slightly below the 135,87 million tons estimated in January and, if confirmed, this volume would be 7% higher than the record harvest of the 2019/20 season, when the country harvested 127,15 million t.

“With abundant rains forecast for March, around 95% of the harvest would be guaranteed. Therefore, we can already say that we will have a full and record harvest. The concern is now limited to the difficulties imposed by excess humidity for the harvest. And in this case, some regional losses are happening. But still nothing that radically transforms this large production scenario”, highlights the Grains coordinator at DATAGRO, Flávio Roberto de França Junior.

In relation to the planted area, the country went from 37,39 million hectares in the 2019/20 season to 38,76 million in the current harvest, an increase of around 4%. Of this total, Brazil harvested, until February 26th, 28,0% of the estimated area, compared to 15,1% in the previous week; in the same period of 2020, Brazilian soybean farmers had harvested 44,4%; on average over the last 5 years, 36,9%.

Corn

DATAGRO forecasts 24,036 million tons for the 1st corn harvest; 18,43 million tons in the Center-South and 5,6 million tons in the North and Northeast regions, a volume 8% lower than the 26,12 million tons in the revised last harvest. The total area of ​​the 1st harvest reached 4,29 million hectares in 2021, 1% lower than the 4,33 million hectares harvested last season.

In the Center-South region, the area should reach 2,96 million ha, practically stable compared to the 2,98 million ha of the previous season; in the North and Northeast regions, 1,33 million ha, 1% lower than the 1,35 million ha in the last harvest.

Until February 26th, the Center-South region of Brazil harvested 39,1% of the projected area, compared to 29,9% in the previous week, 37,4% in the same period last season and 28,2% on average of the last 5 years.

For the 2021 winter harvest, Brazil still has a projected area of ​​15,31 million ha, 5% higher than the 14,64 million ha in 2020. Of this total, 13,13 million ha would come from the Central region -South and 2,18 million ha in the North/Northeast regions. And this planting must occur, even if largely outside the ideal sowing windows.

Brazil has potential in the 2nd corn harvest of 85,58 million tons, 7% above the 80,20 million tons of the revised harvest that just passed. Of this total, the Center-South region would account for 79,78 million tons, and the North/Northeast regions, for 5,79 million tons.

As of February 26, the Center-South region had planted 40,6% of the area estimated for winter corn, compared to 22,2% in the previous week, 67,1% at the same time last year and, on average of the last 5 years, 59,5%.

In total for the two corn harvests, Brazil has an area forecast for 2020/21 of 19,60 million ha, 3% above the 18,97 million ha of the previous harvest, and potential production adjusted to 109,62 million ha t, against 110,06 million tons in the previous survey, 3% above the 106,32 million tons in the record 2019/20 harvest.