Corn and soybean crops in the south of the country are expected to recover in productivity in the 2022/23 harvest

The performance of corn and soybean crops in the south of the country should improve in the 2022/23 harvest when compared to that recorded in the current cycle. Last season, high temperatures and drought were recorded during the development of first-crop crops and negatively affected crop performance. However, for 2022/23 the weather conditions are expected to be more favorable. In the producing regions of Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina and Paraná, the projected production for soybeans in the next cycle is 66,48 million tons, an increase of 96,3% in relation to the estimated harvest in 2021/22, as shows the state data from the Perspective for Agriculture 2022/23, released this Tuesday (06) by the National Supply Company (Conab).

According to the information released, in the event of normal climate conditions, oilseed productivity in the state of Rio Grande do Sul should increase by 134,2%, going from 1.433 kilos harvested per hectare to 3.356 kg/ha. Farmers in Paraná tend to record a productivity of 3.630 kilos per hectare in the next season, compared to 2.161 kg/ha, an increase of 68%. Combined with an improvement in productivity, the area allocated for cultivation must also be increased by 2% in Paraná, reaching 5,78 million hectares, and by 4,8% in Rio Grande do Sul, estimated at 6,66 million hectares.

If these projections are confirmed, soybean production only in the states in the southern region of the country should recover by 96,3%, contributing to the projection of a harvest of 150,36 million tons of grain across the country. For Rio Grande do Sul alone, a volume close to 22,35 million tons is expected, which represents a growth of 145,3%, while in Paraná the estimated production is approximately 21 million tons, 71,3% higher than that recorded in this cycle.

Conab also points to a good performance for the 2022/23 first harvest corn grown in fields in this region. Estimates show a 53,3% increase in production in the three states. The greatest growth tends to be recorded in the fields of Rio Grande do Sul, driven by the improvement in productivity by 99,2%, with producers being able to harvest 7 thousand kilos per hectare. As a result, production of the 1st harvest is expected to grow by more than 95%, with an estimated harvest of 5,68 million tons.

In Santa Catarina, the recovery of cereal productivity reaches 37,5% and could reach 8.342 kilos per hectare. This improvement is accompanied by the projected result in production, expected to be 2,95 million tons in the 2022/23 season. A similar scenario is expected for Paraná, in which both the first harvest and productivity are expected to grow by 23,4%, expected to reach 8.517 kilos per hectare and 3,69 million tons respectively.

“The main risk factor for these projections not being achieved is the possibility of irregular and poorly distributed rainfall in the main producing regions in the last quarter of the year and at the beginning of the following year, a factor that should be monitored weekly by Conab in the coming months” , ponders the agricultural information superintendent, Candice Romero Santos.

To prepare area and productivity estimates by Federation Unit, Conab used the analysis of historical series, information brought from the field by the Agricultural Information Centers (Nuinfs) and the use of 5 forecast models, including time series and machine learning models. “There were several meetings between the teams to evaluate the scenarios brought up by the statistical and machine learning models so that, based on them, the most likely scenarios could be evaluated considering the market fundamentals and the production dynamics of each state”, ponders the superintendent of Market Studies and Supply Management, Allan Silveira.