April was a month with above average temperatures in almost the entire state of Minas Gerais. The rains were concentrated in the Triângulo Mineiro, further west in the south of Minas, in the central part of Zona da Mata, in the Metropolitan Region of Belo Horizonte and in the Rio Doce Valley.
In Figure 1, it can be seen that all coffee growing regions were favored by the distribution of rainfall in April. The Cerrado Mineiro region was the one with the lowest rainfall. The distribution contributed to the percentage of water present in the soil in Minas Gerais, a fact that can be verified based on Figure 2.
Despite the lower volume of rainfall in the Cerrado Mineiro (Figure 1), it can be observed, based on Figure 2, that the greatest availability of water in the soil is found in the Cerrado Mineiro, when compared to other coffee growing regions, as well as in Campo das Vertentes. .
Atmospheric and oceanic conditions reveal that the La Niña phenomenon is still present, and it is likely that such conditions will persist until June, when winter begins. From July onwards there is an equal probability (50%) that La Niña conditions will continue or neutral ENSO conditions will occur until September, when spring begins in the Southern Hemisphere.
Regarding rainfall, for the quarter from June to August, below-average rainfall is expected for the entire southern region of Brazil, for Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo, Mato Grosso, with the exception of the Northeast mesoregion of the state. In the South and Central mesoregions of Goiás, as well as in the South/Southwest, West and Triângulo Mineiro, in Minas Gerais, below-average rainfall is also expected.
Above-average rainfall is expected for Amapá, Roraima, the Northern Amazonian mesoregions, in the Amazon; Lower Amazonas, Marajó and metropolitan Belém, in Pará; North, East and West of Maranhão, and throughout Rio Grande do Norte and Paraíba, and in the coastal region of Piauí, Ceará, Alagoas, Pernambuco and Sergipe.
This pattern of below-average rainfall in the South, Southeast and Central West regions and above average in the North and Northeast of Brazil increases from June onwards, reaching its maximum in August.
Above-average temperatures are expected in the next quarter for the states of Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Goiás, and the northwestern mesoregion of Minas Gerais; and also in the Far West of Bahia and the Southwest of Piauí; and in São José do Rio Preto, Ribeirão Preto, Araçatuba and Presidente Prudente, in São Paulo.
Below-average temperatures are expected in the North and Central Amazonian mesoregion, Lower Amazonas, in Pará, and in the South of Roraima. In Minas Gerais, the probability of temperatures slightly below average can be seen in Figure 3. In other Brazilian regions, temperatures should remain within the average for the quarter, that is, within normal limits.
In the next two weeks, rain is expected in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, as well as in a strip in the extreme north of Brazil, in the states of Amazonas, Pará and Amapá, and in a coastal strip between Ceará and southern Bahia.
From the second half of February onwards, a reduction in the volume of rainfall was observed in Minas Gerais. In the month of March, the rain was more concentrated in the Triângulo and in the South of Minas, which contributed to the low water humidity in the soil in parts of other coffee growing regions in the State. In April, despite the better distribution of rain in the State, soil humidity remained low, especially in a large part of the Matas de Minas region, in the South of Minas and in the Chapada de Minas region. The consequences of such conditions may be revealed in the coming weeks, in coffee washers, with the greater presence of empty and malformed beans.
Despite the problems of poor grain formation, which may occur in these regions due to the low water availability for coffee, the continuation of the drier climate, consequently with low relative humidity, may contribute to improving the quality of the coffee that is being harvested this season.
Considering the probability of a quarter with temperatures just below average in most coffee growing regions, the producer must be aware of the possibility of frost, especially in the south of Minas where cold fronts arrive with greater intensity. Therefore, the chances of the producer being surprised by this type of weather event over the next three months increase.
Given the prevailing weather conditions, producers must pay attention to the coffee market, which continues to fluctuate and rise in prices. Those who have stocks should pay attention to the market and take advantage of prices to sell according to their needs. Knowing that coffee is a product whose market value is strictly related to its qualitative aspect, the producer must always invest in all processes that contribute to obtaining quality coffee.
As the production of coffee seedlings is common in the current period of the year, the nurseryman who is still filling the bags should be warned to protect the substrate so that it does not receive direct rain.
Due to the loss of seedlings in the last harvest due to frost, many nurseries are leaving to sow a little later this year in order to avoid burning the seedlings in the nursery. Those who sowed earlier can prevent seedlings from being burned by frost by using straw over the seedlings or by using tarpaulins over the beds.
Young plants in the field can be protected by covering them with soil. Plants that are one and a half years old can be protected by placing soil on their stems as high as possible. In the case of adult plants, cleaning the streets without spontaneous plants, good nutrition, avoiding irrigation prior to the event, and the use of a heater/thermal fogger at the time of frost, can be preventive actions that avoid burning.
The climate analyzes and forecasts presented here were prepared based on statistics and histories of the occurrence of global climate phenomena, mainly those active in South America. Information made freely available by NOAA was also considered; by the International Institute for Research on Climate and Society — IRI; by the Met Office Hadley Centre; by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts — ECMWF; by the Amazon Climate Bulletin prepared by the Meteorology Division (Divmet) of the Amazon Protection System (Sipam) and based on climate data made available by INMET. (5th Disme) / CPTEC-Inpe.
The climate forecast refers to natural phenomena that have chaotic characteristics and are subject to drastic changes. Therefore, EPAMIG and Embrapa Café are not responsible for any damage or loss that the reader may suffer, or may cause to third parties, due to the improper use of the information contained in the text. Therefore, it is the reader's sole responsibility to use the information provided here.
By Williams Ferreira, Marcelo Ribeiro and Larissa Santos
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