Conflict between Israel and Iran threatens agricultural chains

Israel's military offensive against facilities in Iran, recorded in the early hours of June 13, raised a global alert about the economic and political consequences of the conflict, including for Brazil. This is the assessment of Professor João Alfredo Nyegray (pictured), a specialist in Geopolitics and International Business at the Pontifical Catholic University of Paraná (PUCPR).

The main immediate impact is the rise in oil prices, given the threat of a partial blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, a route through which approximately 20% of global production passes. For Brazil, this could result in higher fuel costs, inflationary pressure and new adjustments to Petrobras' pricing policy, with direct effects on agricultural production.

The rural sector may also face higher prices for fertilizers and pesticides, since oil influences the cost of these inputs. Iran, in fact, supplies urea to Brazil, and new sanctions or trade retaliation may make supply difficult. The state of Paraná, a leader in halal protein exports, may be particularly impacted if Islamic countries impose trade restrictions on Israel's allies.

Furthermore, the escalation of tension increases the so-called geopolitical risk, causing capital flight and currency devaluation. This can increase the import costs of agricultural machinery and technology, directly affecting the competitiveness of the productive sector.

The expert also points out that possible interruptions in the Suez Canal's maritime routes could also affect the flow of products to markets in the Middle East, North Africa and Asia.

Given this scenario, João Alfredo Nyegray highlights the importance of strategic intelligence and constant monitoring of international developments to mitigate risks and protect the performance of Brazilian agribusiness.