Brazilian grain production could reach 312,4 million tons in the 2022/23 harvest. If confirmed, the volume exceeds by 41,5 million tons the record obtained in the recently ended season, when 270,9 million tons were harvested. This is what the 1st Survey of the 2022/23 Grain Harvest released, this Thursday (06/10), by the National Supply Company (Conab) points out.
According to the document, the area allocated for planting shows a growth of 2,9% in relation to the 2021/22 cycle, being estimated at 76,6 million hectares. “It is worth highlighting that in Brazil, considering its vast territorial extension, three crops are grown in different periods. Thus, approximately 52,6 million hectares are used for all crops”, reinforces the president of Conab, Guilherme Ribeiro.
Among the products, highlights include soybeans and corn, which together should record a production of 279,3 million tons. In the case of soybeans, Brazilian farmers must allocate an area of 42,89 million hectares, a growth of 3,4% compared to the last harvest. Grain sowing occurs within the window in the main producing states and reaches 4,6% of the area, with the highest rate recorded in Paraná (9%), followed by Mato Grosso (8,9%) and Mato Grosso do Sul (6%). With the expansion of the area, Conab's estimate for oilseed production is 152,4 million tons.
For corn 1st harvest, a 1,5% reduction in the area to be cultivated is expected, due to increased costs as well as a migration to more profitable crops. Planting is advanced in the south of the country, where frequent and well-distributed rainfall favors its initial development, despite the low temperatures recorded that delayed emergence in some regions. “In the three southern states, where sowing is already advanced, producers are paying attention to the possible incidence of leafhopper attacks, especially with the increase in temperatures in the coming months”, comments the Company's Agricultural Information Superintendent, Candice Romero Santos .
Even with the smaller area, the cereal harvest in the first harvest is expected to increase by 14,6%, estimated at 28,69 million tons. The good result is due to the expectation of productivity recovery in the current cycle. Adding the three cereal harvests throughout the 2022/23 season, Conab estimates a production of 126,9 million tons.
Important products for the domestic market, rice and beans, also tend to show a drop in planted area. Even so, the estimate is for rice production to be 10,8 million tons, while legume production is expected to reach 2,96 million tons, which guarantees supply in the country. “Beans are a short-cycle crop, which presents an advantage for producers who can adapt their planting within a shorter window, without having to give up the production of other grains in the same crop year. In this scenario, Brazil has three distinct planting seasons, thus favoring a constant supply of the product throughout the year”, highlights the director of Agricultural Information and Agricultural Policies at Conab, Sergio De Zen.
For cotton, the expectation is that 1,63 million hectares will be allocated to the cultivation of the fiber, an increase of 1,9% in the area sown in the 2022/23 harvest when compared to the previous harvest, resulting in a production of cotton lint. 2,92 million tons.
For winter crops, the crops are in the harvest phase or advanced stage of development. The main sown product, wheat has already been harvested in 22,4% of the country's planted area. Expecting a new record, Conab projects cereal production at 9,4 million tons, a volume 22% higher than in the previous harvest.
Conab's first projections for the 2022/23 harvest point to an increase in final stocks of corn (20%), cotton (17%), beans (31%) and soybeans (45%) compared to the 2021/22 harvest. With regard to domestic consumption, the survey points to stability in the consumption of rice and beans, a slight increase in the demand for cotton (2%) and an increase in the consumption of corn and soybeans, of 6,2% and 5% respectively.
For wheat, trade balance estimates were adjusted in this 1st survey, reducing imports from 6,3 to 6,1 million tons and increasing foreign sales from 200 thousand tons to 2,7 million tons. With the consolidation of data, the country should end the harvest in August 2023 with a carryover stock of 1,19 million tons.
For soybeans, in 2023, the grain export estimates stand out at 95,87 million tons, which represents an increase of 22,5% in relation to the projection for 2022. “This increase is motivated by a greater supply Brazilian grain in the 2022/23 harvest, combined with an increase in global demand and a forecast of a reduction in exports from the United States”, reinforces the superintendent of Market Studies and Supply Management at Conab, Allan Silveira. As for oil, the prospect is for a decrease in exports (from 2,1 million tons in 2022 to 1,8 million tons in 2023), given the expectation of greater biodiesel production and that Argentina will return with greater strength to the soybean oil export market in 2023.
A similar situation occurs with corn export estimates: with the projection of greater production and heated external demand, Conab estimates that 45 million tons will leave the country via ports, which represents an increase of 21,6% in cereal exports in 2023.
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