Conab identifies upward trend in sea freight prices

Prices charged in the market for maritime cargo transport are on an upward trend. The increase can exceed 20% depending on the route and the product to be transported. According to the Logistics Bulletin, released this Tuesday (22) by the National Supply Company (Conab), for fertilizers removed from Europe to Brazil, the increase was around 10%, going from 46 to 50 dollars per tonne. If the origin of the products is Egypt, the increase exceeds 20%, reaching 12 dollars per ton.

“This rise in sea freight prices is explained not only by the increase in the value of a barrel of oil, which impacts fuel, but also by the smaller number of routes available, mainly in the Black Sea region. As a result, there is a greater demand for other routes, in addition to less ship availability”, explains the Company's Operational Logistics superintendent, Thomé Guth.

The bulletin also highlights an expectation of greater pressure on demand for freight in the country, especially in the second half of the year, a period in which the volume of shipments of products for export is greater. “This time, there is a tendency for the export volume of Brazilian corn to increase, which will impact the movement of cargo to the main export routes. If we observe, we have an indication of an increase in the values ​​of the port premium for cereal, both in Santos and Barcarena, for the month of July. This shows a scenario of strong interest among importers in Brazilian corn, especially given the uncertainty of the effects of the war”, highlights Guth. “As a record volume of corn exports is already expected for the current harvest, according to Conab's latest harvest survey, of 35,0 million tons, a new increase could cause an even greater demand for freight, as well as greater movement in national ports, including the ports of Arco Norte, since a large part of this exported volume tends to originate in Mato Grosso”.

Intern market

In the domestic scenario, the price of road freight continues to rise. Among the reasons for the increase in value seen are the lower availability of vehicles, given the advance of the soybean harvest in the country, as well as the increase in fuel prices, given the increase in the price of a barrel of oil on the foreign market.

“In Mato Grosso, the soybean harvest reached its peak in February. What can be seen is that the significant flow of trucks to the port of Miritituba (PA) has caused bottlenecks in unloading, generating long queues for disembarking, increasing waiting times. This longer stay is being compensated with the increase in freight,” he says.

According to the bulletin, the price dynamics for railway terminals in the municipalities of Rondonópolis and Alto Araguaia also followed the upward trend. “Due to the low supply of return freight, which makes the route unattractive, the increase in the price charged for removal occurs so that soybean transport can be maintained. In this way, the combination between harvest and export flow dynamics should keep prices high throughout much of March”, ponders the superintendent.

The complete analysis on the impacts of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia on logistics, as well as other information about the freight market in Mato Grosso do Sul, Paraná, Goiás and the Federal District can be accessed in full Logistics Bulletin - March/2022, available on the Company's website.