Coffee production in Brazil expected to fall 4,4% in 2025

The National Supply Company (Conab) released the first estimate of the Brazilian coffee harvest for 2025. Total production is expected to reach 51,8 million bags of processed coffee, which represents a reduction of 4,4% compared to the 2024 harvest.

The decline reflects the impact of the low biennial cycle and adverse weather conditions, such as water restrictions and high temperatures during flowering. The national average productivity should be 28 bags per hectare, 3% lower than the previous year's yield.

The area allocated to coffee cultivation grew by 0,5%, reaching 2,25 million hectares, with 1,85 million in production and 391,46 in formation.

Arabica coffee, which accounts for the majority of national production, will see a drop of 12,4%, with an estimated 34,7 million bags.

Conilon coffee is expected to show significant growth of 17,2%, totaling 17,1 million bags.

Performance by state

Minas Gerais, Brazil's largest coffee producer, expects an 11,6% reduction in production, estimated at 24,8 million bags. The drop is attributed to the low biennial yield and the prolonged drought that preceded flowering.

Espírito Santo, the second largest producer, expects a 9% increase, reaching 15,1 million bags. This growth is driven by conilon production, which is expected to increase by 20,1% due to favorable weather conditions during the flowering period.

São Paulo, which is exclusively an Arabica producer, is expected to see a 15,3% drop, to 4,6 million bags. In Bahia, total production is expected to grow 11,3%, reaching 3,4 million bags, while Rondônia, which focuses on conilon, expects 2,2 million bags, an increase of 6,5%. States such as Goiás and Mato Grosso, smaller producers, are projecting reductions due to the negative biennial and unfavorable weather.

Global scenario

Global coffee production for 2024/25 is estimated at 174,9 million bags, an increase of 4,1% compared to the previous cycle, according to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).

However, global demand of 168,1 million bags is expected to keep global stocks at historically low levels, with just 20,9 million bags at the end of the season, the lowest volume in 25 years.