Coffee production grows 8,2% in 2023 and reaches 55,1 million bags

Brazilian coffee production reaches a harvest of 55,1 million processed bags, an increase of 8,2% compared to the 2022 cycle, as shown in the 4th Coffee Survey 2023. Released today (14/12) by the Company National Supply (Conab), the bulletin shows that the increase is influenced by the recovery in productivity, around 6,3%, reaching 29,4 bags harvested per hectare. In addition to this, the state-owned company saw an increase of 1,8% in the area under production, reaching 1,87 million hectares. The area under formation fell by 9,5%, being estimated at 361,6 thousand hectares.

The volume harvested is the third largest in the historical series and happens even though this is a year of negative bienniality, since the 2022 season's performance was influenced by adverse weather conditions throughout the development of the crop. If the current result is compared with the year 2021, the last year of negative bienniality, the increase reaches 15,4%.

The good result reflects the recovery in production of Arabica coffee crops, which represents 70,7% of the total volume of coffee produced in the country. With production of 38,9 million bags, growth of 18,9% over the previous harvest, this species presents an increase of 2,3% in the area under production, combined with the estimated gain of 16,2% in productivity, caused by the conditions more favorable climate compared to the last two harvests.

In Minas Gerais alone, the main coffee producing state, the volume to be harvested is approximately 29 million bags, an increase of 32,1% compared to the total volume harvested in the previous harvest. Even with the effects of the negative biennial on many producing regions, crop performance shows a 24,2% growth in productivity. Another important producer of arabica, São Paulo will produce 5,03 million bags, an increase of 14,7% compared to the volume obtained in 2022. In Paraná, the increase in productivity reaches 51,5% with production estimated at 718,5 thousand bags. In Bahia, the effects of the negative biennial period were observed in the coffee plantations of this species, with a 12,8% drop in the harvest, reaching 1,1 million bags.

Conilon - if arabica records an increase in production, a drop of 11,2% in relation to the last harvest is expected for conilon. The harvest estimated by Conab reaches 16,17 million bags. Even with the confirmed reduction, this is the third largest harvest recorded for the species. This result is a reflection of the lower productivity observed, influenced by the adverse weather conditions recorded in the main producing state, Espírito Santo, which impacted part of the crops, especially in the early stages of the cycle.

In the state of Espírito Santo, the harvest is estimated at around 13 million bags in total, 10,16 million bags of conilon alone. The second largest producer of conilon coffee in the country, in Rondônia production reaches 3,04 million bags, an increase of 8,6% compared to the last harvest. A result favored by the 16,4% gain in productivity, stimulated by favorable climatic conditions, the entry of new areas into production, with clones with greater productive potential, better crop management and the majority of crops being equipped with irrigation devices.

Market – from January to November this year, Brazilian coffee exports were 34,9 million 60-kilo bags, according to consolidated data from the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC). The volume represents a reduction of 4,1% compared to the same period last year, a drop influenced by the restriction of stocks at the beginning of this year.

The increase in production in the current harvest enabled both the recovery in domestic supply and in sales to the international market. However, grain shipments grew more significantly only from August of this year, after the harvest of the majority of the crop. The expectation is that coffee exports at the end of this year will approach the total volume shipped in 2022.

With regard to revenue, there was also a drop in sales to the foreign market. From January to November 2023, Brazil exported US$7,2 billion, which represents a drop of 14,5% compared to the same period last year. Even so, international prices remain at attractive levels, an appreciation supported by the scenario of restricted stocks in the 2023/24 harvest, due to the limitation of global production in the two previous cycles; combined with the increase in global consumption of the product, forecast at 170,2 million 60-kilo bags, which represents a new record and an increase of 1,2% compared to the previous cycle.