Coffee price fluctuates 66% in the last 12 months

Neogrid's Stockout Index, an indicator that measures the lack of products on the shelves of Brazilian supermarkets, registered an increase in January and the overall stockout reached 13,7% - a variation of 0,9 percentage points (pp) compared to December of last year. This is the first result above 13% since August 2024, after months of stability of the index in the range of 12% - in the last three months, the indicator had already been showing an upward trend. One of the highlights in terms of increased stockout is coffee in January, which rose 2,1 pp compared to the previous month, and which has a price variation of 66% compared to the last 12 months. 

“The increase comes at a time when retailers are already beginning to feel the impacts of the slowdown in consumption in the country,” says Robson Munhoz, Director of Corporate Relations at Neogrid. “With food prices rising and Brazilians’ purchasing power under greater pressure, restocking is slower and resulting in the lack of some types of products and brands on the shelves, further worsening the situation.”

Breakdown of the categories that stood out in January 2025:

Eggs: from 16,7% to 19,7%;

Coffee: from 9% to 11,1%;

Sugar: from 8,9% to 10%;

Olive oil: from 6,6% to 7,6%.

Eggs

Egg unavailability increased by 3 pp, growing from 16,7% in December 2024 to 19,7% in January 2025. In terms of prices, white eggs had a slight adjustment, rising from R$11,06 to R$11,25. Free-range and quail eggs, on the other hand, registered a drop, going from R$13,43 to R$15,05 and from R$9,22 to R$8,26, respectively.

Egg price variation:

Café

The stockout rate for some brands and types of coffee increased, reaching 11,1% in January – an increase of 2,1 pp compared to the previous month. Regarding prices, consumers continue to experience an extra bitterness in their pockets, as the product had an average variation of up to 66% throughout 2024. In this month's list, the price of ground coffee increased by 7%, going from R$21,94 to R$23,48, while coffee beans saw a reduction, falling from R$50,14 to R$44,47.

The rise in prices is linked to climate crises that have affected production over the past year. According to the Center for Advanced Studies in Applied Economics (Cepea) at Esalq/USP, recent rains in producing regions may favor the 2025/26 harvest, although producers remain alert to forecasts of high temperatures, since excessive heat may compromise the quality of the grain.

Coffee price variation:

Sugar

Sugar unavailability rose 1,1 pp in January, reaching 10% and returning to the level of August 2024 after a period of stability between September and December. Regarding prices, crystal sugar varied 2,9%, going from R$9,40 to R$9,68. Brown sugar also increased, going from R$15,09 to R$15,34, while refined sugar remained stable at R$5,85.

Sugar price variation:

Olive oil

After months of stability and a downward trend monitored since July 2024, olive oil prices rose again this month, registering a 1 pp increase and reaching a 7,6% break. Despite the increase, the scenario is more favorable than at the beginning of last year, when the product index was 17,5%. In terms of prices, virgin olive oil saw a slight reduction, from R$48,14 to R$47,91, while extra virgin olive oil rose from R$49,44 to R$50,18.

Olive oil price variation: