Coffee harvest shows lower yield in 2025

Weather conditions, their impacts on production, and the outlook for future coffee harvests guided discussions at the 7th Coffee and Climate Forum of the Regional Coffee Growers' Cooperative in Guaxupé (Cooxupé). Held this week in Guaxupé, Minas Gerais, the event highlighted the low yields of this harvest and outlined a challenging outlook for 2026. 

According to Guilherme Vinicius Teixeira, coordinator of Cooxupé's Geoprocessing Department, the current harvest began in 2023, but flowering was delayed due to the delayed return of rains, which only occurred in October 2024. Furthermore, the shortened rainy season between February and April of this year harmed the beans. "Producers are spending more harvested coffee to produce the same processed volume," he explained. 

The prolonged water deficit also increased the drop in chumbinho, Teixeira assessed. Furthermore, a higher percentage of mocha coffee beans was observed—beans that appear when only one of the fruit's loci is fertilized or when one of them loses energy to other parts of the plant. 

For 2026, the expert predicts a challenging scenario. This is because delayed rainfall has reduced the branch growth period, reducing production potential. Dryland crops recorded an average of 11 knots, while irrigated crops recorded 14. Furthermore, hail and frost events occurred in the Mogi region of São Paulo state and southern Minas Gerais, as well as frost in the Cerrado region of Minas Gerais. 

The outlook for 2027 is more encouraging. The forecast for earlier rainfall than in 2024 could favor an earlier and longer start to the growing season, increasing production potential, provided weather conditions remain favorable.

Climate forecasts and the influence of La Niña

Agrometeorologist Marco Antonio dos Santos noted that the 2025/26 cycle presents much more favorable conditions than the previous year. In 2024, there were more than 120 days of drought, irregular rainfall, and high temperatures. 

According to him, the rains should arrive earlier, in mid-September, about a month earlier than in 2024, creating a more humid environment for the flowering. "This will cause the flowering to occur earlier. In addition to the onset of rain, there should also be continuity," he said. Another positive point is that temperatures tend to be milder and more uniform, especially with the possible confirmation of La Niña in November.  

Physiological management: attention to the four phases of coffee

Professor José Donizeti Alves, from the Federal University of Lavras (UFLA), reinforced that the coffee agricultural year requires attention in four crucial phases that define the size of the coffee tree's production: flower set, lead, fruit expansion and graining.

Despite more favorable weather conditions than last year, climate pressures can change quickly. Therefore, the expert advised producers to anticipate their actions. 

As a strategic recommendation, the UFLA professor emphasized deepening the root system so that roots can access water in layers of 1,5 to 2,5 meters. "This promotes drought resistance and reduces water stress, stimulating a virtuous cycle of coffee growth," he said.

For 2026, José Donizeti reinforced the need for preventive and sustainable management, ensuring that the plant can withstand climate variations and maintain productivity.