CNA presents climate and market perspectives for the 1st Harvest 2022/2023

The climate and market perspectives for the 1st Harvest of the 2022/2023 Cycle were presented in a live broadcast held on Tuesday (20/09) by the National Confederation of Agriculture and Livestock of Brazil (CNA).

The debate was moderated by the technical advisor of the CNA Cereals, Fibers and Oilseeds Commission, Tiago Pereira, and brought together the StoneX Market Intelligence specialist, Ana Luiza Lodi, and the meteorologist and climate consultant, Francisco de Assis Diniz.

The CNA advisor highlighted the concern with climate issues for the 1st Harvest of 2022/2023. “In recent years, climate adversities have been punishing Brazilian producers. In the 2021/22 harvest, we had significant losses that mainly affected soybean, corn and coffee crops. But even with the losses in the South, the increase in the productive potential of most of Brazil mitigated the impacts”, highlighted Pereira.

Diniz stated that there is a high probability of the La Niña phenomenon remaining during the spring and early next year. “In the months of October, November and December the probability of La Niña remaining is 82%, with an increase in neutrality at the beginning of 2023,” he said.

According to the meteorologist, in the next three months (October, November and December), there is an estimate of significant rainfall in the central/northern part of Brazil and less rain in the southern region of the country, mainly in Rio Grande Sul and part of Santa Catarina . “Paraná will be in an intermediate area. Only in January will we have better rain conditions in the South region”, highlighted Diniz.

Lodi explained that the market is monitoring the La Niña phenomenon and climate variations, but that there is an estimated record in soybean production in the 2022/2023 cycle. “For corn we also have an estimated recovery in productivity, but with a drop in planted area,” he said.

Pereira also spoke about the estimates made by the CNA, carried out based on the latest Conab harvest survey (September/2022).

A full live It can be watched on CNA's YouTube.